Kobe Bryant Is Old, Battered, And Used: Is This The Year His Decline Begins?
Kobe Bryant is about to do something that Michael Jordan never did.
That is, go into an NBA season with more than 1,000 career regular season games already under his belt.
Kobe Bryant hit the 1,000 mark late last season and stands now at 1,021 career regular season games. This coming season he will, presumably, pass Michael Jordan's
career mark of 1,072.
Add the fact that Kobe has played in 198 playoff games in his career (good for 6th place all-time) and you can see that he is carrying a lot of mileage.
And its not just the heavy workload. Kobe has a well-documented history of playing through significant injuries.
Just this week, Bryant had arthoscopic surgery on his knee. This is the third time that he has had his knee scoped.
While Kobe is relatively young at 32 years of age, he has already gone through more of the NBA rigors than many of the retired greats ever did.
Lets take a look at some of history's numbers and see what that might suggest for the remainder of Kobe Bryant's career.
If you were to compile a list of every NBA player who averaged more than 20 points per game for at least one season and began a season with more than 1,000 career
regular season games, you would get a list of 30 players.
Kobe will be the 31st player in NBA History to meet these criteria when he begins the coming season.
Among these players are some of the all-time greats including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Julius Erving, and Dominique Wilkens.
These players, together, averaged 20.5 points per game going into the season after they hit 1,000 career regular season games.
So how about that season after they hit the 1,000 mark? Together, they averaged just 13.78 points. That is a 33% drop in points per game.
Their rebounds took a similar drop at 31%, while their assists, as one might expect, held on a little better with just a 25% drop.
If you applied these percentages to Kobe's stat line you would get him averaging 16.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists next season. A far cry from the past few
seasons.
Now, of course, the results vary and some players were able to keep the level of their game up better than others. But here are a few interesting facts.
No player on the list was able to average at least 20 points per game over the seasons that followed their 1,000 game mark.
Only four players (Julius Erving, Moses Malone, Karl Malone, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) were able to average at least 20 points per game the season after they hit
1,000 career regular season games.
The highest average was Karl Malone with 22.9 points per game. Even that would be the lowest average for Kobe since the season after he became a starter.
The Forwards and Centers on this list performed much better than the guards in their late years.
There was not a single guard who averaged at least 15 points per game the season following their 1,000 game mark.
After hitting 1,000 career regular season games, the players averaged just 194.6 more games in their career. That is less than three full seasons.
They started, on average, 70% of the games they played in after hitting 1,000 career games.
One thing that Kobe Bryant does have going for him is his age. He will be the youngest player to start a season with 1,000 career games under his belt.
The average age for these players going into the season after they hit 1,000 career games is 35.5.
So what does next season hold in store for Kobe Bryant? Only time will tell.
The numbers seem to suggest that this could be the year that Kobe begins his decline
科比已经不再年轻，身体疲乏，今年会是他成绩倒退的开始吗？
科比将要做一些乔丹没有做的事情了。
也就是说，带着职业生涯1000+场比赛进入下一个赛季。
科比在上个赛季完成了千场比赛，而现在他已经完成了职业生涯1021场比赛。在接下来的这个赛季，他大概可以超越乔丹的职业生涯1072场常规赛。
加上科比职业生涯已经打了198场季后赛（历史排名第六），我们可以看到他已经有很多里程碑式的时段。不只是有很重的工作压力，科比有一个
经历各种严重伤病的职业生涯。
就在这个礼拜（发得太晚了，已经是前几个礼拜的事情了额），科比完成了他的膝盖手术。这已经是他膝盖的第三个手术了。
科比虽然现年32，相对还算年轻，他已经比大多已经退役的NBA球星更加伟大。
现在我们来看一些历史数据，预测一下科比的职业生涯接下来的走向。
如果你列一张表格，关于那些至少有一个赛季场均20+并且带着1000+场职业生涯的记录开始下一个赛季的球星，你将得到30个球星名字。
当下个赛季打响，科比将是第31个达到这个成绩的人。
在这些球星中有一些历史上的篮球巨人，包括贾巴尔、卡尔马龙、埃尔文和多米尼克威尔金斯。
这些球员中，带着场均20.5分和前场比赛进入下个赛季。
那么在他们完成一千场的纪录之后的比赛呢？总体上，他们场均降到了13.78分。也就是在场均得分上下降了33个百分比。
他们的篮板数也相似的有了31个百分比的下降，而他们的助攻，你们可以想象到，略少地下降了25个百分比。
如果你将这些百分比应用到科比的数据上，你可以预测他下个赛季将场均得到16.7分，3.7个篮板以及3.5次助攻。比起之前的赛季有了很大幅的下降。
当然，应该说这个结果因人而异，有些球员比其他人能够保持比赛水准稍高。但是接下来有些有意思的事实。
名单上没有人在完成一千场比赛后的系列赛季中得到场均20分。
只有四个人（埃尔文、摩斯马龙、卡尔马龙和贾巴尔）能够在一千场接下来的这个赛季得到场均20。
最高的得分是卡尔马龙的场均22.9分。虽然说这是科比在成为先发后的最低场均得分。
名单上的前锋和中锋在他们之后的赛季中表现相对比后卫好。
在一千场职业生涯比赛后，没有任何一个后卫能够场均得到15分。
在完成一千场比赛之后，他们之后平均只打了194.6场比赛，还不足3个完整的赛季。
这些人中只有七成的人之后仍然能够首发。
在科比现在的年纪，有一件事情是确定的，他是带着千场比赛进入下个赛季的球员中最年轻的。
这些人的平均年龄是35.5岁。
那么，科比的下个赛季会是什么样子？只有时间知道。
数据似乎是在暗示今年将是科比倒退的开始。（这个，我很主观的认为不会的！！！！~） |
發表於 2010-9-26 03:15 AM
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