[時事討論] 《經濟學人》：阿里巴巴面對兩大風險

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-22 11:49 PM 編輯


《經濟學人》：阿里巴巴面對兩大風險
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早前，中國網絡平台阿里巴巴宣布放棄在港上市的計劃，選擇轉移到紐約上市。普遍相信，這是因為香港拒絕了阿里巴巴主席馬雲的建議。馬雲等人原本要求，以「合夥人制度」透過持有「特別股」，保持對公司的控制權。os.tvboxnow.com, y" b& Q- E# S: n6 Z* b4 f+ R

雖然，根據最新一期《經濟學人》的估計，阿里巴巴的上市集資額，有機會比facebook在兩年前的集資額160億美元還要多。然而，該文判斷香港交易所不妥協的決定還是明智的，因為根據香港現時的法律制度，並未有條文明確針對「合夥人制度」，一旦普通股擁有者覺得「特別股」股東玩忽職守，在法律上他們亦難以追究。! I. f# m) l' [( ^2 S5 z
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《經濟學人》指出，美國的股票市場近年缺乏高質中國概念股在當地上市，故當地投資者相信對阿里巴巴將「非常飢渴」。然而，文中點出了阿里巴巴在美國上市，以及未來發展的兩大風險。

首先，中國的網絡監控，可能會影響阿里巴巴未來的業務發展。早前，有報道指由於中國打擊網絡謠言過烈，不少新浪微博上的「大V」（意見領導者）均遭到打壓，令微博的網絡流量停滯不前。阿里巴巴將來亦可能面對同樣問題。此外，中國會否容許阿里巴巴透過開曼群島、英屬處女島等避稅天堂註冊然後到美國上市，亦是阿里巴巴能否在美國上市的另一隱憂。, V4 E3 j# z* n. o
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更重要的是，阿里巴巴拍賣網之所以收入豐厚，全靠中國的網絡控制，使外國科技公司難以進入本地市場。現時，阿里巴巴已漸漸面對騰訊及百度的本土競爭，高速增長本來已經難有保證。倘若中國一旦開放門禁，則阿里巴巴的前景，未必如現時人們所想像的亮麗。
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The Economist: Migrating finches
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China’s online firms are flying to American stockmarkets# S8 W' _8 A2 [. |5 B
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DICK COSTOLO, the boss of Twitter, was in Shanghai this week to see first-hand what the Galapagos islands of the internet look like. He follows in the footsteps of Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s founder,who also came for a study tour. Thanks to censorship and hostility to foreign internet firms, otherwise global giants such as Facebook, Twitter, Google and eBay are banned or irrelevant. Weird and wonderful local variations have, like Darwin’s finches, evolved in this isolated market instead.os.tvboxnow.com+ X) L7 l1 D: z# G

Even as American technology bosses are exploring China, some of those esoteric local firms are bursting to get out. Amoratorium, only recently lifted, on initial public offerings on mainland exchanges has led to a big backlog of IPOs. So China’s best online firms are now hoping to list on American exchanges. In January JD, an e-commerce firm akin to Amazon, launched a share offering in America that may value the firm at $20billion. On March 14th Sina Weibo, the nearest Chinese equivalent to Twitter,announced an IPO that would raise up to $500m, reportedly valuing it at around$7 billion.

These announcements were put in the shade a day later when Alibaba, an e-commerce colossus rapidly expanding into internet finance, ended months of flirtation with the Hong Kong exchange by declaring it will soon float its shares in New York. It is rumoured that the firm plans to raise over $15 billion. David Chao of DCM, a venture-capital firm, predicts that it will be “bigger than Facebook”. The American social network’s offering two years ago raised $16 billion. Analysts expect the flotation to value Alibaba at $140 billion or more, compared with Facebook’s current market capitalisation of $175 billion.

The Hong Kong exchange lost out on Alibaba’s flotation because it rejected demands by Alibaba to allow a clique around Jack Ma, its founder, to retain control using special shares. The exchange was wise to uphold its ban on such arrangements, because unlike those in America,ordinary investors cannot easily seek redress through the courts when they feel they have been abused by a company’s controlling shareholders. Fortunately for the Hong Kong market, a flood of other IPOs is headed its way., t. ^& A% E, c. x

Will Americans welcome Alibaba and its peers?It was not long ago that they got burned by a series of fraudulent Chinese offerings. Duncan Clark of BDA, a consulting firm, argues that those “fraud caps” were obscure firms with complex, hard-to-verify assets. Today’s IPOs are of prominent, well-understood firms, so he thinks investors will see them as“proxies for China’s emerging consumer classes”. Helpfully, various hot American startups, such as Airbnb and Square, are unlikely to list soon,leaving investors hungry.
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However, potential buyers of the Chinese firms’ shares should consider two risks. The first is regulatory uncertainty.In its prospectus, Sina Weibo warns that official censorship may threaten its business model. Also, China and the United States are in a dispute that may seethe mainland units of the Big Four accountants banned from auditing Chinese firms listed in America. And there is a slim chance that either country’s regulators may object to the offshore vehicles (“variable-interest entities”,usually based in the Cayman Islands) used by Alibaba and other Chinese technology firms to list overseas.
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The other risk arises from growing competition. Firms like Alibaba grew dominant when local rivals were scarce and foreign ones absent, but things are changing. Tencent, a gaming goliath, thismonth took a big stake in JD, thus turning it into a potent force in e-commerce. This week Alibaba spent $215m on a stake in Tango, an American messaging app. Alibaba, Ten cent and Baidu (China’s answer to Google) have gone on acquisition sprees to prepare for a battle royal, and this is eroding margins: Ten cent reported disappointing earnings this week. As its tech stars expand into overseas markets, China will be pressed to let foreign rivals in.If one day it agrees to this, instead of Galapagos finches its local firms may come to resemble Europe’s red squirrels, devastated by the arrival of their pushy grey cousins from North America.
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