[國際] 土國總理拚地選對敍強硬掩困頓

土國總理拚地選對敍強硬掩困頓
os.tvboxnow.com6 @2 y8 d7 r1 B9 K
土耳其本年八月舉行總統選舉，無法再連任執政正義與發展黨黨魁的總理埃爾多安很可能競選總統，實現長期執政夢。埃爾多安和執政黨備受貪腐醜聞困擾，土國周日舉行之地方選舉，被視為土國民眾對總理的信任公投。埃爾多安在這場不容有失的選戰前夕，對敍利亞阿薩德政權擺出空前強硬姿態，不無轉移視線的用心。

埃爾多安政府去年中無視民眾反對，堅持清拆伊斯坦布爾市綠色地帶，為商業發展項目騰出用地。當局下令鐵腕清場火上添油，激起巨大反政府浪潮，矛頭指向埃氏獨裁專制作風，惟總理依然故我。1 ^4 ]) T) w3 e

屋漏偏逢連夜雨，未幾土國爆出轟動全國的「鞋盒收賄案」，警方於土耳其人民銀行前第一把手家中，搜到裝有數百萬美元現金的鞋盒，其時埃氏三名閣員的兒子涉為發展項目收賄被捕，與埃氏關係密切的土國房地產大亨阿奧盧也牽涉其中，執政正義與發展黨的廉潔形象嚴重受損。

這邊廂，埃氏認為是身處美國的土國回教學者居倫，號召其遍布警界和司法界的支持者抹黑執政勢力，採取連串整肅行動；那邊廂，「如何瞞過警方將大筆資金藏起」之疑似埃氏與兒子電話談話，經社交網站傳遍土國，埃氏直斥有人捏造證據誣陷他和兒子。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 x& U. ?; X* h4 S& k

遭總統及法院落面

一周前，埃氏政府頒令封鎖社交網站Twitter，理由是Twitter無遵守法院命令移除有問題的內容。土國民眾不費吹灰之力便繞過封鎖，總統居爾更以身試法，於Twitter留言反對封鎖，摑同黨的埃爾多安一巴。周三，土國一所法院要求埃爾多安政府解除對Twitter封鎖，埃氏更難落台。同日，土國外長達烏特奧盧警告阿薩德政權和敍國境內任何勢力，切勿試探土國底線，該國不排除採取跨境軍事行動。土國軍方周日擊落一架闖入土耳其領空的敍利亞戰機，可見達氏並非虛張聲勢。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% r: d( x4 Q8 ]- I( V) w+ m

敍國境內的奧斯曼帝國始創者祖父陵墓，距土國邊界僅廿五公里，土國在當地有駐軍，阿蓋德勢力近日威脅襲擊駐守陵墓的土國部隊。埃爾多安想要激化土敍衝突為周日地選造勢，不愁沒有切入點。

收藏分享評分

冷眼旁觀天下事笑談細看風雲變

回復引用

訂閱 TOP

felicity2010

親王

Rank: 17

2^#

發表於 2014-4-4 07:56 AM | 只看該作者

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-4 08:00 AM 編輯 9 y+ f0 f; I$ g
0 V$ _, k+ G. x
Sinan Ülgen: Erdoğan’s Pyrrhic Victory
os.tvboxnow.com0 i2 z! Z% {# `! W/ t/ o* \. }
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( S) t4 Z- e2 J- g- H
ISTANBUL – Turkey’s beleaguered Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party(AKP) have emerged victorious from this week’s local elections. Still, the AKP’s triumph is unlikely to ameliorate the country’s internal conflicts, much less revive its tarnished international standing.: Q; z5 c5 r  i+ z5 Z9 C3 O  J
0 I6 l$ }/ T6 @/ D& g" ]
The local elections were widely seen as a referendum on Erdoğan. The AKP received 44% of the national vote and now controls 49 of Turkey’s 81 metropolitan municipalities, including Istanbul and the capital, Ankara. The main opposition force, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), received 26% and won only 13 municipalities.

The outcome can be seen as a vindication of Erdoğan’s strategy of using political polarization to consolidate his support and counter the challenge to his rule posed by followers of his former ally, the US-based Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen.With the AKP’s initial support, the Gülen movement gradually infiltrated state institutions, particularly the judiciary and law enforcement, until the alliance eventually ended in an acrimonious split over the distribution of power within Turkey.公仔箱論壇) x" K; s0 D" A2 J* b/ N- c# C

The end result was a dirty war of graft allegations spread through social media, apparently by Gülen’s followers primarily. In response, the government has branded its opponents as enemies,and sought to promulgate new laws undermining the independence of the judiciary and restricting freedom of expression – including shutdowns of Twitter and YouTube.
os.tvboxnow.com3 u* d! E% Y1 w/ w* T8 N1 Y- Q" l' B
Erdoğan’s strategy sought to complement this exercise in damage limitation with a demonstration of its popular legitimacy.With the AKP’s overwhelming triumph in the local elections, Erdoğan can now justifiably claim that the Turkish electorate backs his approach,including his government’s suspension of the rule of law in order to obstruct corruption investigations that it views as a judicial coup attempted by Gülen’s followers.
/ l4 X# u; f4 r. e8 p# k& ~
Yet the AKP’s electoral victory heralds two specific dangers for the future of Turkey’s democracy. The first is the persistence of intense political polarization in the run-up to the presidential election in August and the parliamentary election in the first half of 2015.
公仔箱論壇! y( i) U/ \! K7 |, b2 E2 w
In Turkey, polarization does not have the same political costs as it does elsewhere: Given a weak system of checks and balances, the Turkish executive still has ample room to manage the state’s affairs. And Erdoğan’s recent victory will embolden him to continue his polarizing politics as the basis of a presidential run.公仔箱論壇$ w. N1 E8 k1 o2 f( K; G0 q/ Z
0 d8 Z, R# s3 o7 \& g
The other danger is that of growing alienation from the West. With a renewed popular mandate, the government is likely to begin prosecuting Gülenists for alleged criminal behavior. But the creation of a wider siege mentality to boost domestic support also requires the invention of external co-conspirators – global financial markets, the international media, or even Turkey’s NATO allies. Such allegations have been apart of the government’s conspiratorial rhetoric since last summer’s protests,and the authorities dismissed the recent corruption accusations against Erdoğan in the same way.
os.tvboxnow.com& H! w; h7 o  _+ c' Q
Turkey’s international standing has thus suffered enormously from Erdoğan’s strategy of internal polarization. Long gone are the days when the prospect of accession to the European Union sustained a powerful dynamic of democratic reform. With hope of EU membership fading, reform momentum has been lost, and the European Commission is expected to issue a sharply critical progress report in October.. h% w7 J9 B- ]6 {7 h
os.tvboxnow.com( D' G. j4 I7 D/ L; M% L
The bilateral relationship with the United States is also under strain. President Barack Obama and Erdoğan rarely speak with one another anymore, whereas Obama once considered Erdoğan among his favorite world leaders.os.tvboxnow.com5 \4 k8 Y5 G" [9 E+ r* W

Turkey has also lost several regional allies,particularly some of the Gulf monarchies, which are angry at the Erdoğan government’s unconditional support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.Turkey’s much-vaunted soft-power diplomacy and neighborhood policy now lie in tatters.
公仔箱論壇8 T3 |3 ?+ i, ?- A
Yet Turkey remains a large and important regional power. With his popularity reaffirmed, Erdoğan could still move in a different direction. Aware of the dangers of extreme polarization and reassured by the level of support obtained by the AKP in the local elections, Erdoğan may opt to lower the political temperature at home in the hope of repairing Turkey’s frayed relations abroad.os.tvboxnow.com/ r7 w2 m1 v4 R
6 M* S8 U6 s0 v
How Erdoğan behaves will not only determine the intensity of domestic political conflict; it will also greatly affect Turkey’s potential to regain the regional clout that it once enjoyed. If Erdoğan believes that a higher level of antagonism is necessary to retain power, he may remain oblivious to the harm done to Turkey’s international standing. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 k+ }/ \: |, q! N1 g9 |  n1 y& v
% b  K0 l* d' k& ^4 l3 o  R1 j

回復引用

TOP

felicity2010

親王

Rank: 17

3^#

發表於 2014-4-13 08:36 AM | 只看該作者

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-13 08:42 AM 編輯 , T  G7 M( t$ q( N

Timur Kuran: Turkey’s Electoral Dictatorship

DURHAM – In the run-up to Turkey’s municipal elections on March 30, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared that the popular vote would serve as a referendum on his scandal-plagued leadership.With the help of his Justice and Development Party (AKP), which centered its campaigning on him, Erdoğan was able to redefine the elections. His opponents blindly played along, hoping that the polls would force him out. But, of course, diminishing Erdoğan’s power could never be so simple.

The main source of opposition to Erdoğan’s leadership is his increasingly dictatorial style. He seems to have interpreted a 50% vote in 2011 as a mandate to refashion the country according to his own values. His authoritarian streak, already evident in his leadership of the AKP,is now on constant display in both his speeches and his government’s policies.

Last summer, the Erdoğan government’s brutal response to popular protests in Istanbul’s Gezi Park made Turkey look like an intolerant one-party state, as did the polarizing speeches that Erdoğan delivered in defense of the crackdown. His incessant demonization of secular Turks fueled fears that an Islamic morality police was in the works.
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' w# E6 L2 `" X, `
Jaws dropped as Erdoğan used scandals as a pretext to eliminate the remaining checks to his authority. In response to a corruption investigation involving his family members and close associates, here assigned hundreds of prosecutors and police officers, assumed control over the judiciary, and established a state agency to block any Internet site at will. When leaks of incriminating audiotapes continued, he banned Twitter and YouTube, putting Turkey in league with China and Iran with regard to freedom of expression.
" N* i( P" l! I0 Z# p
Perhaps most shocking is Erdoğan’s assertion that these measures are compatible with democratic principles. According to his purely majoritarian and thoroughly illiberal understanding of democracy,opponents who speak up are stooges of sinister lobbies and allies of foreigners bent on keeping Turkey down. The rule of law is the choice of the chieftain;freedom of expression is the obligation to obey and conform; transparency is the state’s right to control and manipulate information; and human rights is an elastic concept that depends on political imperatives.- F4 n3 @+ Y- a+ W8 |

But, in last month’s election, the Turkish electorate seemed to disregard these affronts to democracy, giving the AKP 44% of all municipal posts. In Istanbul, home to nearly one-fifth of Turkey’s population, the incumbent AKP mayor, Kadir Topbaş, won by eight percentage points.
5 {8 Z$ j# D/ B
To be sure, the vote counting produced thousands of credible reports of improprieties, including the alleged theft of ballots and, more important, power outages in dozens of closely contested provinces. Nevertheless, it is clear that the AKP won a resounding victory.os.tvboxnow.com+ ~5 |1 r6 f4 e
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 R6 t6 H1 K6 G4 G1 i; L
According to exit polls, most AKP voters believe that the corruption charges leveled against Erdoğan are at least partly true. But they give him high marks for economic stability, widely shared prosperity, and respect for religious conservatives marginalized by generations of secular modernizers. Clearly, voters believe that his performance in these areas outweighs his missteps.

Voters who stuck by Erdoğan knew that he would regard another electoral victory as a renewed mandate to govern autocratically and silence his critics even more definitively. They had heard him thunder, in speech after speech, that he would fight his enemies,rather than seek consensus, and disregard the international community’s protests. And that is exactly what he has been doing.
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; C& C5 j$ B( x& J/ M- f! k
Indeed, rather than using his victory speech to promote reconciliation, as is customary after a bruising election battle,Erdoğan reiterated that he would crush his opponents. Once again, he accused opposition parties of treason. He vowed to take revenge on the movement led by the Pennsylvania-based cleric Fethullah Gülen, which had helped him to sideline the once-powerful military (using prosecutions that he now admits were based on largely fabricated evidence). He again blamed Gülen’s followers for the leaks that exposed AKP corruption, vowing to prosecute the whistleblowers, rather than those accused of taking massive bribes and laundering money.公仔箱論壇# f1 V4 T, x8 ~0 Q; U/ T4 Y
( u* @% f: {( ~8 ]. V3 t9 n
Erdoğan did not stop there. He also declared that Turkey’s elections had taught the world a lesson in administering democracy. In fact, the main lesson is that democracy comes in many forms. In a purely majoritarian system, voters are free to elect a leader committed to extinguishing liberalism and pluralism. In other words, a purely majoritarian democracy may produce an electoral dictatorship.
公仔箱論壇- L( R$ L, Y* l' V
If there is a silver lining in Erdoğan’s transformation of Turkey, in barely three years, from a model for liberalizing Arab countries to a dictatorship resembling those overthrown in Egypt and Tunisia., it is that many Turks have a clearer understanding that liberal democracy requires sustainable checks and balances. Those who participated in ending the military’s role as a political guardian now recognize that Turkey needs new institutions to protect basic freedoms and ensure limited government.

Indeed, Turkey now offers a vivid example of the perils of unconstrained political power. In the world’s freest societies,it took generations of hard work to establish viable safeguards. More such struggles are needed in Turkey.

On April 1, Erdoğan’s energy minister blamed a cat for the election-night power outages – and he was not joking. Erdoğan’s post-election behavior augurs more trouble in elections to come. Those who voted for the AKP last month may yet learn that an elected dictator can use his powers to overstay his welcome.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 i" _( E$ A/ B% Z' Q9 P/ n
os.tvboxnow.com6 E4 m" U! O  B1 y8 e
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 q( H  C# T" O7 o$ r' G
Timur Kuran is Professor of Economics and Political Science at Duke University and the author of The Long Divergence:How Islamic Law Held Back the Middle East.os.tvboxnow.com0 V/ n$ I* }6 j! k) f% [) Y
7 w) W+ r; w5 G) L7 z

回復引用

TOP

返回列表

[國際] 土國總理拚地選 對敍強硬掩困頓

[國際] 土國總理拚地選對敍強硬掩困頓