& N2 @& {- z R2 m) a5 yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。很久沒有寫「公投」分析。不過最近蘇格蘭的「政改公投」，又真是比香港這邊的更加熱鬧，因為真的隨時是變成「蘇格蘭獨立」也說不定。不過稍為定一定神，也又泛起不少疑團。事情看來沒有表面那般簡單：背後的「中國因素」，似乎大家都忽略了。公仔箱論壇, q M2 E2 L6 S
the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill。英國在2013年12月通過
作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-9 02:23 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-9 02:29 PM 編輯 公仔箱論壇. u+ { V: f7 q2 r5 B1 {
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Harold James : Should Scotland Leave the Pound Zone?os.tvboxnow.com/ K$ m) F3 V; }
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PRINCETON –As Scotland prepares for this month’s referendum on independence, the United Kingdom – indeed, all of Europe – must brace itself for the impact of a successful bid. Scottish independence would revolutionize the British and European constitutional frameworks, and give a tremendous boost to other European separatist movements, from Catalonia to northern Italy. The economic impact of independence, however, is far less certain.公仔箱論壇, C: S+ F* ?; x! q& k3 W1 h
( P/ m5 Y/ J# D& xAdvocates of independence have long insisted that they are motivated primarily by the distinctiveness of Scottish identity. But Scotland’s history and traditions,while undoubtedly its own, have been shaped by centuries of interaction with England and other parts of the British Isles.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( O% ]6 c* _1 l S2 B" T
The more immediate issue for Scots is money. The question of whether an independent Scotland could or should continue to use the British pound has dominated discussions over the last few months of the referendum campaign. The outcome –for Scotland, the UK, and Europe – could vary widely, depending on which path Scotland chooses. 5 A3 h0 U9 J: d! z公仔箱論壇! e& ^0 c2 r7 y$ ]- C" _6 }
So far,Scottish nationalists have insisted that an independent Scotland would retain the pound. But, given how much easier it would be to make the case for a separate currency – not to mention the fact that Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has explicitly rejected Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s proposed currency union – such declarations amount to an own goal.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 C+ |3 U5 K- a/ @
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The problem with the Scottish nationalists’ vision is a mirror image of the eurozone’s main shortcoming. Given that a single currency cannot function without a common monetary policy, and that economic conditions across the currency union differ,individual members will, at times, be subject to unsuitable policies.os.tvboxnow.com* `; }& V3 R3 N4 \
4 p) C! q# q+ t3 c5 l% N6 a2 i# ]公仔箱論壇For example,during the construction boom of the 2000s, Ireland and Spain should have had tighter monetary conditions, higher interest rates, and lower loan/asset ratios. But their eurozone membership meant that government and private-sector borrowers alike benefited from very low interest rates. After the financial crisis erupted, and policymakers began seeking ways to compel banks to revive lending in these and other struggling countries, it became apparent that there were no available tools to employ.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# Z i; E* b) D2 M
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Today, the UK faces a similar dilemma. The property boom in the London area demands tighter monetary conditions. But higher rates would wreak economic havoc on the rest of the country, where the recovery remains anemic.公仔箱論壇# a& `. e- Z) ]
+ E+ }! y( o) V" e: ^5 S+ GTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Moreover,like Germany, London maintains a huge current-account surplus (8% of GDP) – a potentially serious problem, given the deflationary effect that Germany’s surplus has had on the rest of the eurozone. Already, the rest of the UK runs an external deficit that is higher than that of any industrialized country. ' y% k5 u4 K7 t$ z 4 x3 J2 X5 M+ A+ E公仔箱論壇The behavior of a currency can be driven by one powerful and preeminent sector of the economy; in the pound’s case, it is the financial sector. Some viewed the pound’s rapid decline in 2007 and 2008 – a 30% depreciation in trade-weighted terms – as a much-needed economic stimulus, given the boost that it implied for export competitiveness. The UK’s independent monetary policy provided it with a level of flexibility that the eurozone economies lacked. . s N# r7 U5 f/ B2 @tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbos.tvboxnow.com% v8 r& v9 V7 R
But the revival of confidence in the financial sector has caused the pound to rebound sharply (by 18%since the end of 2008), eroding the UK’s competitiveness gain. What is good for the City of London is not necessarily good for the rest of the economy. 8 l4 T. G0 }% p! V. R5 q4 KTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 1 X* [7 F+ ?- @% L- {: tThere is thus an unmistakable appeal in escaping an economic arrangement that shackles Scotland to London – an appeal that the great Scottish economist Adam Smith would have recognized. Indeed, his most influential work, The Wealth of Nations, was motivated by the belief that the interests of the London merchant community were distorting British commercial policy.9 ~9 K- }: B8 E: q" |0 M" s( p, Y; ^2 P
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The alternative to retaining the pound, however, presents its own challenges.According to the Scottish economist Ronald MacDonald, an independent Scotland should have its own currency,which would behave like a petro-currency, owing to the economy’s dependence on North Sea gas and oil. ; L5 q- ?' K1 }( Y$ RTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' E: r9 X7 y* o* |- w' m; u. u
But replacing one dominant sector with another is probably not good for the rest of the Scottish economy, which would lose competitiveness whenever surging energy prices pushed up the exchange rate. As less competitive industries were driven into loss and insolvency, economic activity would become even more concentrated and specialized.& u2 m! Q& J" W3 i* k
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Placing the burden of adjustment on the exchange rate is not the answer. The small, open economies of Switzerland and Norway – important models for Scotland – struggled with sharp currency appreciation during the global financial crisis. For Switzerland, the solution was to implement a ceiling on the franc’s exchange rate against the euro.公仔箱論壇. q! X& G. y: f# y D# N9 C0 s8 Z: s
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This should inspire Scotland to pursue association with a larger currency area and a more diversified economy. How about adopting the euro? - F# j& x9 P9 m8 G1 E% q : ?2 K# g. Q9 t0 q7 C" Q6 Rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbos.tvboxnow.com7 A! \( p- d- c S( M! y
/ C- h5 }' V! J; v1 c" c+ r Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University, Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence, and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm,and Making the European Monetary Union. 1 {2 r% D) E. h& k" BTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 |9 F2 A" z$ x" u4 ^ 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-11 10:42 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-11 10:49 PM 編輯 - h9 n) e% ?- M: A公仔箱論壇( m$ S" D$ B6 S% O2 n
The Economist: UK RIP ?os.tvboxnow.com" F" [) k' S% g4 @
7 D( Q* ]. t! @Ditching the union would be a mistake for Scotland and a tragedy for the country it leaves behind 1 w& y) z9 V4 |; g' G 8 _8 a* O# q" Q* `& v; Ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb * E- {! `+ t* F7 |tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 6 S6 }8 Y5 N0 ?- l8 @6 U, sos.tvboxnow.com) v% _- p2 N& U+ h m- C6 X# z
SCHOOL CHILDREN once imagined their place in the world, with its complex networks and allegiances, by writing elaborate postal addresses. British youngsters began with their street and town (London or Manchester, Edinburgh or Cardiff),followed by England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland; then came the United Kingdom (and after that Europe, the World, the Universe…). They understood that the UK, and all its collective trials and achievements—the industrial revolution, the Empire, victory over the Nazis, the welfare state—were as much a part of their patrimony as the Scottish Highlands or English cricket. They knew, instinctively, that these concentric rings of identity were complementary, not opposed.公仔箱論壇' J6 Z: ]! I5 @4 y) F
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) P T# [. E/ h: ?
At least,they used to. After the referendum on Scottish independence on September 18th,one of those layers—the UK—may cease to exist, at least in the form recognisable since the Act of Union three centuries ago. As the vote nears,Scotland’s nationalists have caught up with the unionist No camp in the opinion polls, and even edged ahead (see article). More and more Scots are deciding that the UK, which their soldiers, statesmen,philosophers and businessmen have done so much to build and ornament, does not cradle their Scottishness but smothers it. This great multinational state could be undone in a single day, by a poll in which just 7% of its citizens will participate. That outcome, once unthinkable, would be bad for Scotland and tragic for what remained of the UK. 2 Q; e1 Q W `& bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇 g8 Z8 M, p4 N3 t, E3 ]- L$ o
7 ]( R$ D0 V3 v* m5 t# E6 y" ]tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe damage a split would dotvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" }; D/ Y+ l2 B, a
0 W& X5 J' W' X; J* ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe rump of Britain would be diminished in every international forum: why should anyone heed a country whose own people shun it? Since Britain broadly stands for free trade and the maintenance of international order, this would be bad for the world. Its status as a nuclear power would be doubtful: the country’s nuclear submarines are based in a Scottish loch and could not be moved quickly. Britain would also be more likely to leave the European Union, since Scots are better disposed to Europe than are the English (and are less likely to vote for the Conservatives, who are promising a Euro-referendum if they win next year’s general election). The prospect of a British exit from the EU would scare investors much more than a possible Scottish exit from Britain (see article).$ n3 i2 l# k7 h, D
1 H% y( x- P/ |0 j+ W* r: `4 z6 FTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The people of Scotland alone will decide the future of Britain, and they are not obliged to worry about what becomes of the state they would leave. But—perhaps not surprisingly, given the endurance and success of the union, imperilled though it is—Scots’ own interests, and the rest of Britain’s, coincide. * D$ y4 _" a9 O; gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 6 e) e. V- k+ E! _2 f! }公仔箱論壇At the heart of the nationalist campaign is the claim that Scotland would be a more prosperous and more equal country if it went solo. It is rich in oil and inherently decent, say the nationalists, but impoverished by a government in Westminster that has also imposed callous policies. They blame successive British governments for almost every ill that has befallen Scotland, from the decline of manufacturing industry to ill-health to the high price of sending parcels in the Highlands. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s nationalist leader, is broad in his recrimination: Labour and the Tories are of a piece, he suggests, in their disregard for Scotland.! \: f+ k. \ d* Q* L
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But Scotland’s relative economic decline is the result not of southern neglect but of the shift of manufacturing and shipping to Asia. If Westminster has not reversed all the deleterious effects of globalisation and technology, that is because to do so is impossible. The nationalists know this, which is why, sotto voce, they would continue many of Westminster’s policies. Instead they make much of minor adjustments, such as abolishing the “bedroom tax”, a recent measure designed to nudge people out of too-large social housing. To break up a country over such small, recent annoyances would be nuts. ' t4 M T! K( _" [os.tvboxnow.comtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 T5 F' T. G2 f0 Q: l) Y& W+ ~2 O
The nationalists’ economics are also flawed. Scotland would not, in fact, be richer alone. The taxes that would flow to it from the North Sea would roughly compensate for the extra cost of its lavish state, which would no longer be funded by Westminster (last year spending was some £1,300 per person higher in Scotland than elsewhere in Britain). But oil revenues are erratic. They would have earned Scotland £11.5 billion in 2008-09 but only £5.5 billion in 2012-13.If an independent state were to smooth these fluctuations by setting up an oil fund, it would have less cash to spend now. In any case, the oil is gradually running out. In order to maintain state spending after it is gone, taxes would have to rise. And a crunch might come much sooner. Foreign investors and big businesses that mostly serve English customers could well move south. # Y% f$ T6 p! h" z% F x1 Fos.tvboxnow.com 1 x& [. N5 s" Q# P. [. t! D5 DWestminster has ruled out a currency union (see article)—correctly,given that the nationalists propose a deficit-widening fiscal splurge and that the assets of Scottish banks are an alarming 12 times the country’s GDP. It might relent, but only if Scotland agrees to such strict oversight that independence ends up meaning little. The nationalists say that kinks over currency and the like could be worked out amicably—that it would not be in Britain’s interests to antagonise its new northern neighbour, particularly since (they hint darkly) Scotland could refuse to take on its share of the national debt. They are far too sanguine. If Scotland goes, the rest of Britain will be furious, both at the Scots and at their own leaders, who will be impelled to drive a hard bargain. - C7 c. E, Z8 ]% B, U& V3 m& g- H7 }
Mr Salmond is on stronger ground when he argues that if Scotland does not leave Britain it might be dragged out of the EU against its will. This is indeed a danger, but in going independent Scotland would swap the possibility of an EU exit for a certain future as a small, vulnerable country. Its best hope of remaining influential is to stay put, and fight the Eurosceptics. ( F2 J# _5 B4 Z7 t' Dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ [" n" }1 I, |& @5 `
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A lot to losetvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 @9 G1 f9 |) a Y8 l
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 b3 q6 l# Q1 G. e0 G, I
In the end the referendum will turn not on calculations of taxes and oil revenue, but on identity and power. The idea that Scots can shape their own destiny, both at the referendum and afterwards, is exhilarating. Yet Scotland already controls many of its own affairs (even if Mr Salmond’s Scottish National Party, which runs the devolved government and is driving the Yes campaign, has not done much with its powers so far). Moreover, as Westminster politicians of all stripes have hastily made clear, if Scotland votes No, the devolved administration will soon get so much clout that the practical difference between staying in the union and leaving it will narrow. That would also lead to the distribution of power away from Westminster and to other bits of Britain, which should have happened long ago.os.tvboxnow.com1 f: R6 y7 D5 G6 P
1 `! U/ y' o/ d公仔箱論壇So by staying in, Scots will not just save the union but enhance it, as they have for300 years. For the UK, with all its triumphs and eccentricities, belongs to Scots as much as it does to the English—even if increasing numbers of them seem ready to disown that glorious, hard-earned heritage, and to simplify their identities by stripping out one of those concentric rings. That goes against both the spirit of this fluid century—in which most people have multiple identities, whether of place, ethnicity or religion—and the evidence of the preceding three. For all its tensions and rivalries, and sometimes because of them, the history of the union shows that the Scots, Welsh, English and Northern Irish are stronger, more tolerant and more imaginative together than they would be apart. / Y1 Y& X# x) m" y. CTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇" q+ |4 u% F5 U# e0 O' i+ P 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-12 06:57 AM
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