# [8 N. \0 A. `, B" T! K鄧小平當日之言「中國要出問題,還是出在黨內」,至今仍然貼切。今時今日,習近平被視為繼鄧小平之後權勢最盛的中國領導人,但薄熙來乃至周永康兩案顯示,黨內鬥爭仍無日無之;周永康受查一事遲遲未正式公佈,北京政界流傳著黨內大老出面阻撓習近平的傳言。隨著習近平繼續反腐,他在高層內的敵人會越來越多;而改革經濟需要實施的政策,也會引起民眾不滿。為八九示威者所不齒的貪腐,今日變本加厲;而隨著中國經濟發展,群體性事件亦越發頻繁。 f2 A) D' x9 n, G8 h* o& vTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 " t8 i0 r8 K( o' O" tos.tvboxnow.com25年前的六月四日清晨,為另一家傳媒當記者麥傑斯亦身在現場,看著鎮壓過後火起處處的長安大街,質疑中共還能否走上正途;而當年的《經濟學人》則形容中國「已在政變、反政變與內戰的邊緣」。25年過去,末日預言沒有實現,中共並未倒台;但今日中國面對的政治、經濟乃至國際問題越來越嚴峻,中共若要撐過接下來的25年,則是未知之數。公仔箱論壇/ v% N( o \4 k
os.tvboxnow.com9 w; z; {* a& O- K3 u& L
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-5-31 11:58 AM 編輯 os.tvboxnow.com+ A5 b& X: T1 z# H: X) E& A$ N/ b9 Q
' T) E% @1 `% q( L8 Y' G% ^/ j Remembering Tiananmen ! p; `1 {" C* yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The lessons of historytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 p$ s6 A; S& h : [* b9 H- h4 F: k* h% f/ `公仔箱論壇James Miles) q9 s1 a7 P5 Q3 u- m4 n 9 _- H5 U, o" A& D, y& n
As our bureau chief leaves China, he reflects on the crushing of the protests he witnessed 25 years ago, and what has transpired since 0 n$ B+ h; L q2 Z- A: r. mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb & e# X! {/ E# ?% nos.tvboxnow.com 1 a% |9 y' C. m# u: dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb # y+ u/ N3 P/ J5 H: PTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。EVEN after the Chinese army moved into Tiananmen Square on the night of June 3rd 1989, and cleared it of the detritus left by the students who had occupied it for most of the previous seven weeks,it was several days before observers were certain who was in control of China.Your correspondent, looking down Beijing’s central boulevard, Chang’an Avenue,at a maze of still-burning barricades a day after the bloody operation, was not alone in wondering whether the Communist Party could ever heal. This newspaper,with which he was not then linked, summed up a common view: “This week China looked into the abyss of coup, counter-coup and civil war”. Foreign doomsayers were proved wrong. But even after 25 years of relative stability, it is still wise to be cautious about the cohesion of Chinese politics.( c: _) P1 ~, E# A$ Z' E7 O: I$ p
6 V1 `9 u7 ]* Y) K9 R) m. e( CTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。It was not just foreign observers who were given to apocalyptic musings at the time. “If the rebels had had their way,there would have been a civil war,” Deng Xiaoping told a visiting Chinese-American physicist, Tsung-Dao Lee, three months after the army crackdown that left hundreds, if not thousands, dead. Thanks to strenuous efforts by the Communist Party to erase memories of what happened (see article), many in China now have only a dim understanding of the history of the protests in Tiananmen Square and the nationwide unrest they triggered. But Deng’s analysis is remarkably close to the mainstream among the generation of young urban residents who have grown up since: if they have heard of the 1989 protests, many feel that, though the killings may have been bad,the army’s resolute action helped to create the stability that allowed China’s economy to grow from one that was then smaller than Britain’s into the world’s second-largest. 1 w3 U+ m3 \; ?# V* G+ Z公仔箱論壇 % O. }' p& `+ N' h: @$ pos.tvboxnow.comThis argument, however, glosses over the factional infighting within the party that paralysed decision-making and allowed the protests to grow to the scale they did. Even after Tiananmen, Deng appeared to recognise that political stability was by no means assured. By1992, then retired, he had concluded that the collapse of the Soviet Union and its allies was mainly attributable to their failure to make citizens richer. To avoid a similar fate for China, he went on his famous “southern tour” to drum up support for a fresh round of economic reform. It was this bold move, in the face of stiff conservative resistance, rather than the crushing of largely peaceful dissent, that laid the groundwork for China’s prosperity today. As he tottered round southern China, berating conservatives and calling for the liberation of China’s economy from ideological shackles, he remarked: “If any problem occurs in China, it will arise from within the party.” His words remain apt.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" M' o/ Q- g7 i5 A3 W7 U
G/ a4 W, k( w) `. m0 bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Not since the collapse of the Qing dynasty in1911 has China enjoyed such a prolonged period of stability as it has between Tiananmen and today (barring a handful of high-level purges and numerous street protests, most of them isolated and triggered by local grievances). Yet political risk is as important to bear in mind as the wobbles that are causing growing numbers of observers to worry about China’s economy. Neither kind of risk is grounds for immediate alarm. The government appears sufficiently in control of the economy’s levers (not least through ownership of the main commercial banks)and has sufficient assets at its disposal to prevent a sharp slowdown, at least for another few years. But one important lesson of Tiananmen is that politics in China has a capacity to surprise. Your correspondent recalls respected analysts in the months before June 1989 pooh-poohing rumours of a serious rift within the leadership. 7 z0 L9 i i& nos.tvboxnow.comXi’s got the power ' k- u- _# L1 ^% X9 Dos.tvboxnow.com % e) a; @8 G, {, ^) @2 e: M) I3 e公仔箱論壇There are few such rumours today. Mr Xi is often described as the strongest leader in China since Deng, and he has been moving fast to consolidate his power (he has set up powerful new organs to oversee national security and economic reform, and has taken personal command of them). But there have been hints, both before and since the handover of power to Mr Xi in 2012, that politics at the top remains prone to strife. Eight months before Mr Xi took over, a fellow member of the ruling Politburo, Bo Xilai, was purged; ostensibly for corruption and abuse of power but also, many observers believe, because he threatened Mr Xi’s future grip on power. The mopping up continues. Mr Xi is now trying to eradicate the influence of Mr Bo’s powerful patron, Zhou Yongkang, who was the country’s security chief until here tired in 2012. Mr Zhou is being secretly investigated for corruption, the highest-ranking leader to be targeted on such grounds since the party took power in 1949. Rumours abound in Beijing that Mr Xi is encountering resistance from other retired elders who fear that he is rocking the boat. . j0 R" J2 a& A& a1 ?os.tvboxnow.comos.tvboxnow.com' B! `4 m1 z* q1 A& ^
It is extremely difficult to gauge the level of political stress that these developments are causing. Official statistics can be vague and misleading, but there is no concerted effort, as there is in politics, to keep the outside world in ignorance of pertinent facts. Contacts between Chinese leaders and foreign journalists were very limited before Tiananmen. They were curtailed even further after it. Not since November 1987has a general secretary of the party given the foreign press corps an unfettered opportunity to ask questions about his policies. Your correspondent vividly recalls the exhilaration of that occasion in the Great Hall of the People, when the newly appointed party chief, Zhao Ziyang, raised glasses with foreign journalists and fielded impromptu questions in an unprecedented display of openness. It would have been wrong to read too much into it, however. Zhaosaid that those who believed conservatives and reformers were at loggerheads would “make one mistake after another” in their analysis. He himself was purged by the conservatives during the Tiananmen upheaval and spent the rest of his life under house arrest. 8 ~" I$ l% k+ _+ aTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! }6 ]2 \# M6 w3 u# e* n
Tussling with tigers 6 W s1 e! u. y) O% }! `1 Ios.tvboxnow.com 0 J& L1 S4 v7 d公仔箱論壇Mr Xi admits that economic reforms have entered “deep water”. As he put it on a trip to Europe last month: “We must get ready to go into the mountains, being fully aware that there may be tigers to encounter.” These tigers could include others at the top. Perhaps to avoid a Zhao-like fate (Zhao was the last party chief to put political reform high on his agenda), Mr Xi has begun his leadership with two parallel crackdowns, one on corruption and the other on political dissent. Part of his strategy, many believe, is to scare corrupt officials into compliance with his reforms while preventing dissidents from fanning the flames of discontent in a society that has undergone profound and wrenching change over the past decade alongside broad economic growth (see chart). $ P, t, Z# Z/ W: e9 p2 X, Otvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 W3 c+ b- H/ h" r/ v 6 O, n, r2 i/ TTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Mr Xi has three new social forces to contend with that grew to critical mass under his predecessor: a huge middle class, an equally large underclass of rural migrants, and online social media that have enabled discontents to connect and communicate with remarkable ease, in spite of vigorous censorship. He can probably prevent street demonstrations from coalescing into anything like the1989 unrest. Even if the economy were to slow sharply, a couple of years of stagnation might not pose a great threat to social stability.os.tvboxnow.com4 c5 |+ ]4 h9 |- e: q. `
; k3 k9 i4 p/ J1 e: U/ ]8 Bos.tvboxnow.comAfter all, China has experienced slumps before. Tens of millions lost their jobs in the late 1990s as the regime closed down loss-making state-owned enterprises. Protests did erupt, but most were small. After the global financial crisis in 2008, millions of migrant workers were laid off from export industries. Most, however, had ties to plots in the countryside to which they returned for a few months before finding new work when manufacturing picked up. Despite the current slowdown, employment is holding up well. If the economy were to slow more dramatically, many migrant workers could again melt back into the villages.公仔箱論壇, k# ]- }$ V2 Q8 P% O+ E/ Q: A
6 Y5 M! X# F7 Y Kos.tvboxnow.com 3 ?/ s3 n% I- }# X0 s e. y公仔箱論壇, U) @% B4 \" M+ x! G q$ Z( N' w9 p
There are also reasons to worry about external dangers as China flexes its muscles to assert territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. Mr Xi appears to have abandoned Deng’s post-Tiananmen dictum that China should “hide its capacities and bide its time”. His latest territory-marking manoeuvre was the installation of an oil rig earlier this month in waters claimed by Vietnam. This triggered bloody anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam, but Mr Xi appears unconcerned by the risks. His moves seem calculated to avoid direct military conflict, but if a clash were to occur he might stand to gain politically at home. After Tiananmen the party launched a campaign to boost “patriotic education” among students. The aim was to portray the party as the embodiment of Chinese nationalism. It appears to have rubbed off. Young Chinese especially applaud Mr Xi’s more robust stance towards Japan, a country they are taught to abhor. 4 X7 f* k2 x- m2 W! u, T& Fos.tvboxnow.com - b3 o/ @5 E/ A, U% t( `+ ^TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Elite politics, however, is more of a wildcard. The Bo affair in 2012, which only came to light thanks to the extraordinary flight of his police chief to an American consulate in the south-western city of Chengdu, was a sharp reminder of how erratic it can be. Both Mr Bo’s case and that of his mentor, Mr Zhou, have exposed the power and wealth of family networks within the leadership and their extensive influence in business. It will take all Mr Xi’s strength to keep high-level corruption in check. The protesters in 1989 were enraged by it even then; they would be astonished today. In a case that came to light in the Chinese press this month,an official was found to have 100m yuan ($16m) in banknotes stashed at his home.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# D% h8 w' X# q" n! m4 U/ b' _% o
' \9 U7 H( `( `5 zTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Mr Xi’s sweeping campaign against corruption,the toughest in China in many years, will make him powerful enemies. So too will his efforts to expose big state-owned enterprises to greater competition and rein in profligate local governments. He has called for “decisive results”by 2020 in his drive for economic reform. Yet this will require measures that could make him unpopular with the public, such as the implementation of a property tax that will infuriate the better off. After Mr Bo’s arrest, rumours circulated on Chinese social media of an attempted coup by Mr Zhou. The reports proved fanciful, but they suggested that some Chinese at least are prepared to imagine extreme scenarios. $ l+ |& ]# q9 q' ~4 Ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, n& B4 X, D3 x+ N* n- K6 r: @5 k% q' p
Your correspondent leaves China believing that the party has a good chance of maintaining its grip on power during Mr Xi’s remaining eight years at the top. But the risks—political, economic and international—are growing. The party has proved unexpectedly adept at tackling a series of crises since 1989. But it will need to be even more agile if it is to remain in power for another 25 years.2 G) _5 o% }, e* @; A# V
' c; @. d. P3 I7 E! i. b! P中共高層繼續進行整肅總書記趙紫陽的工作。有關趙紫陽被整肅的文件下達至司局一級幹部。中央政治局常委、國務院副總理姚依林向國務院各部委負責人,傳達了關於趙紫陽問題及中央的處理意見。中共中央直屬機關工作委員會、中共中央國家機關工作委員會也於當日分別發出緊急通知,要求堅決貫徹中共中央和國務院關於迅速結束動亂的指示。! V$ Y5 `" Y: L; U# F, w z
( n" ~- Q" b l# v$ v% Htvb now,tvbnow,bttvb26日的長安街未有出現大型遊行示威,是戒嚴令以來最為平靜的一日,天安門廣場靜坐的學生明顯減少,主要剩下由外地而來的學生。學者王軍濤、包遵信、學生領袖王丹等40多人,在中國社會科學院經濟所禮堂召開會議,形成四條決議:(1)要求李鵬下台;(2)軍隊撤離;(3)天安門靜坐堅持下去;(4)組織動員工人罷工。 + s# E2 ]; u. k# w0 [. ~os.tvboxnow.com t3 k( t1 P* i! ^tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ @# S1 b/ @1 Z; q% _
廿五年前今日:民主歌聲獻中華tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 |% n4 [ \# ^0 Q6 L
2014-5-27 3 i3 M1 M4 C) k4 x6 yTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 4 K6 ^% R3 Q8 a1 dos.tvboxnow.com[youtube]f9fSOavt9vw[/youtube]1 Z' x p3 k" L! N( q H* U
A$ R4 m3 v. z4 N& g2 e; m公仔箱論壇25年前的今日,1989年5月27日,北京戒嚴第八日。香港演藝界總動員,於跑馬地馬場舉行馬拉松式音樂會「民主歌星獻中華」,歷時12小時。20萬市民一直於場內駐足觀看,估計入場人數全日達50萬人,籌得款項逾1,300萬,全數用作聲援北京學運。 2 a( K, Z5 I* r: h- m( O9 w8 Fos.tvboxnow.com 0 D8 B% P5 Z" y: z1 q公仔箱論壇北京方面,堅持留守廣場的10萬名學生代表,與首都各界聯席會議北高聯代表開會後,宣布在5月30日遊行,遊行後撤離廣場,外地學生返回原地,至6月20日人大會議召開時再組織遊行集會,又號召28日舉行全球華人大遊行。os.tvboxnow.com* J& q9 B2 g$ S2 D2 V O: C8 U
) a7 U: N' V/ m* k) t7 x 2百多演藝界人士演出公仔箱論壇" w& d9 |. J* s/ ]" }. i5 a& D
: T. V) |. v+ z( L, A8 B「民主歌聲獻中華」的籌備時間不足1週,但在樂壇一姐梅艷芳的號召下,演藝界一呼百應。現身音樂會的演藝界人士有2百多人,全部演出歌手穿上印有「民主歌聲獻中華」字樣的T恤。不少參與歌手均情緒激動,未開腔已熱淚盈眶,一些人唱至中段已泣不成聲。 + h$ t, {9 A& C0 a% V+ g9 N , A9 u2 Y7 {; P* G9 j, v' r
參與演出的歌手包括成龍、汪明荃等,高唱《為自由》、《龍的傳人》、《勇敢的中國人》等歌曲。身在日本的台灣歌后鄧麗君也專程來港出席。定居大陸的侯德健,帶領全體演藝人員高歌一曲《龍的傳人》。台下觀眾揮動黃絲帶,巨型屏幕上不時打出「民主自由是中國的希望」等標語。# `7 q) Q, O3 T2 U- ~7 P
Y' E, A: V9 Q! ?公仔箱論壇同日,500部大型泥頭車、客貨車和貨車響應摩托總工會呼籲,分批列隊駛往新華社香港分社遞信;30家老人中心的千名長者由維園遊行至新華社請願。聖公會港澳教區牧師舉辦主愛中華禁食祈禱會,呼籲教友翌日下午4時至29日上午7時禁食祈禱。 1 {5 b! V- w! J$ H6 ~TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 s0 M2 X" w7 ~( m; J5 X4 r 萬里書面談話 支持鄧小平李鵬TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( p. S% q$ p/ l3 C" e