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標題: [時事討論] 丘亦生: 中國引爆香港金融危機 ? [打印本頁]

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-7 07:40 AM 標題: 丘亦生: 中國引爆香港金融危機 ?

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-7 07:49 AM 編輯

丘亦生: 中國引爆香港金融危機 ?

TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ k( S9 {- U/ J' [9 H8 f/ M
不知是我哋未瞓醒，還是旁觀者清。當我們還以為香港的銀行體系大樹好遮蔭，被阿爺的人民幣業務帶挈，前景一片秀麗之際，內地及英國傳媒卻竟然不約而同，擔心起我們銀行的穩健，甚至爆發金融危機的可能性，那種山雨欲來的講法直讓人發毛。8 g! o) G: _7 @" a, `, b

唔講得笑，睇完標題已經嚇一驚。內地財經雜誌《新世紀》新一期發表題為《香港萬億美元危機》的報導，而英國每日電訊報則於周六刊出題為《Financial typhoon warning for Hong Kong（香港響起金融颱風警號）》的評論文章。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 @9 W" d% R# U" N$ W

其實兩篇的論調有點相似，都是針對內地經濟的不明朗、企業壞帳飆升、人民幣不再單邊升值引發大量套利交易平倉及資金撤走，以及內地樓市調整等一籃子因素，可能連累近年大舉貸款予內地相關機構的香港銀行。按金管局早前披露的數字，去年底內地相關貸款已佔本港銀行總資產近兩成，或3.6萬億元，當中有多少會出現問題？就算是1%，也是360億元的天文數字。
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《新世紀》的報導側重於熱錢，文章引述大和證券推算美國實施量化寬鬆以來，有1萬億美元熱錢透過香港進入內地，當中不少是衝著人民幣升值而來，估計單單是透過虛報中港出口來暗渡陳倉，把人民幣匯入境投資各類理財產品的金額，累計便高達3100億美元。) [9 J3 u  z# k9 Y4 R8 p' r

如果內地經濟放緩，又或者人民幣不復之前強勢，大量熱錢相繼撤出內地，港銀之前袋袋平安的「貿易融資」便可能暴縮，亦可能出現資產負債錯配的情況。報導說，為了監督銀行如何審批內地相關貸款，金管局已特別設立了一個專責部門來昅實。公仔箱論壇# L1 T7 Y: ^5 _1 u6 j. b7 l
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問題是，虛報出口這種灰色手段，並無正式統計，其具體衝擊不易評估。早前《彭博社》的報導，則指今年以來人民幣貶值近3%，估計已令炒人民幣期權的美資行客戶輸掉20億美元，投資了人民幣衍生工具的中資公司，更加要輸35億美元，這種程度的中伏，可能真會嚇怕了一部份資金。. T6 Z& T  m/ r0 X' ~7 i

《每日電訊報》的評論文章，則聚焦於港銀的內地貸款急增風險，擔心內地的違約潮若蔓延，會波及香港銀行。穆迪上月已率先對4家港銀發出負面評級展望，擔心其內地貸款增長過快。例如剛賣盤的永隆，過去4年貸款予內地的比例，便由8%升急升至去年中的40%。
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為何一份英國報章會關注香港銀行體系，原來是英國央行也開始提防，內地的問題會透過匯豐（0005）及渣打（2888）這些在當地也舉足輕重的銀行，倒過來影響英國的金融業。去年英國央行要求兩家銀行進行壓力測試時，已叫他們重點測試中國及香港的衝擊。以匯豐為例，英國央行要求該行模擬內地樓市跌5成、港股及港樓市跌5成下，銀行的財政狀況會如何惡化。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ n+ G: w; g% E
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無論以上不利因素，有幾殺到埋身，但香港銀行不斷在中國業務上押重注，肯定令風險變得更集中，一次意外，泥足深陷，要避都避唔切。

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Financial typhoon warning for Hong Kong& P9 J2 S1 s, R' P  ]5 h, w
By Harry Wilson

The city is showing worrying signs of being at the centre of the next financial crisis
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Offshore subsidiaries of China’s largest state-controlled banks are using Hong Kong as abase for sourcing foreign currency funding to pump back into the domestic economy

The restaurants are fully booked, the shops are packed, the financial markets are booming. For Hong Kong things have, on the face of it, never been so good.

“One country, two systems” has proved to be a good deal for the former British island colony that today has become a financial centre, not just to rival its old ruler but to eclipse it.

Work in London as a middle-ranking investment banker and you can hope to earn about £286,000 a year in salary and bonuses. Do the same job in Hong Kong and you can earn an extra £30,000.os.tvboxnow.com) A3 G5 j' ^$ Q% }

Take into account the city state’s low personal tax rate and you are looking at a considerably more lucrative career.An attractive prospect as long as you are not too bothered by the dire airpollution.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( T! {: b& j! A- n% A: F
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“It has shops to rival New York and offshore banking services to match Geneva,” says one Hong Kong-based investment banker who long ago left London for Asia.os.tvboxnow.com" X. q" `% [1 J9 {
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Last year, a record 54 million tourists, most of them from the Chinese mainland, thronged through the island’s increasingly jammed shopping malls, while millionaires and billionaires from the People’s Republic bought up luxury properties, feeding a real estate boom to match any seen in the West. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 `7 C: Q. \9 _# u0 Q+ J! w( `
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The Chinese influx, while profitable, has not been to the taste of all the territory’s citizens, who blame “the locusts” for pushing up home prices and forcing them out of central districts.
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At the same time, Hong Kong has the continued to hold the dubious distinction of topping The Economist’s “crony-capitalism”index, with billionaires estimated to have squirrelled away fortunes equivalent to nearly 60pc of GDP, more than treble the level in second-placed Russia. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 I- n( u9 y. R7 M
The boom, therefore, is not one that has been universally applauded or universally shared, adding to the sense of an unbalanced economy. os.tvboxnow.com1 h* B4 X" T0 E; {  S# U
With every boom there is also the ever-present spectre of bust. Hong Kong knows a thing or two about this and its modern financial history has been marked by a series of spectacular bubbles followed by huge crashes.

Duncan Innes-Ker, an Asia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, has followed Hong Kong’s ups and downs for several years and says the present boom is the natural consequence of the West’s and particularly the American response to the crisis. os.tvboxnow.com( z* v* U/ K( {$ i' w
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“When you get low US interest rates you get a property bubble in Hong Kong. To my mind, this looks like the latest in a cycle of boom and busts,” says Innes-Ker. ( G, X; r' v% O% j4 j  P: K

However, Asianomics, a Hong Kong-based research firm, thinks the current upcycle is masking the tell-tale signs of a sharp and possibly unprecedented correction.

“Hong Kong is in the path of the typhoon developing on the mainland,” says Sharmila Whelan, an analyst at Asianomics.

“A nasty downturn in China and a sudden sharp correction in the Hong Kong property market would severely buffet the territory’s economy. China’s problems have become insurmountable and the likelihood that 2014 will prove the year of reckoning is growing,” says Whelan.
She and her colleagues last month published a comprehensive analysis of Hong Kong’s current position and concluded that a bust was already apparent and that its cause was the same as that of the boom:China.
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To see why, you have to look closely at the changes that have taken place in the financial relationship between Hong Kong and China since the crash of 2008.
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Before the crisis, China had never represented more than 10pc of the total external claims of Hong Kong-based financial institutions, but with the implosion of the West, the island’s exposure to the mainland has rocketed and, as of late last year, stood at 49pcof claims. 公仔箱論壇- d+ w# D- ?8 A  ]

Much of the rise has come from the rapid growth of the offshore subsidiaries of China’s largest state-controlled banks,which have increasingly used Hong Kong as a base for sourcing foreign currency funding to pump back into the domestic economy. 6 Z: u1 O, q5 e/ ~
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This has been accelerated by the People’s Bank of China’s clampdown on renminbi lending, which has led Chinese banks and companies to borrow money cheaply offshore, mainly in dollars, to invest at home at higher rates of interest. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb  u9 M, t0 I/ q" X+ t  g
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Moody’s last month issued a “negative”outlook on the Hong Kong-based operations of three out of five of the larger banks, including those of China Construction Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), over the rapid growth in their loan books. ! H$ ?, w9 U- U' {$ d' h
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One of the most extreme examples is Wing Lung Bank, which is currently being taken over by Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, which has almost doubled its lending in the last four years as it ramped up its mainland loan book from 8pc of total loans to 40pc by the middle of 2013.
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This has helped feed the growth in China over the last five years of the largest and most rapid expansion in credit in history that has transformed the People’s Republic of China into the world’s second largest economy on the back of a construction and manufacturing boom without precedent. 公仔箱論壇0 }& t0 W4 p& o) E% j5 O
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“This is a PRC town,” says one senior Hong Kong-based banker. “A decade ago if you heard someone speaking Mandarin you assumed they had accidentally walked over the border, today you can’t get a good job unless you speak it.”

Andrew Scott, professor of economics at London Business School, says the danger to Hong Kong from its exposure to a Chinese crash is clear. “Hong Kong banks are definitely exposed to the mainland through significant lending and are very dependent on the People’s Republic of China central bank for liquidity in renminbi. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' S! ^+ N# u0 A- X9 a" Z
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“So a real estate crisis in the PRC would have a major impact on Hong Kong bank balance sheets and GDP. Of course, if a PRC crisis meant less Western money flowing into China that would also affect Hong Kong,” he says.
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) K3 M+ ^+ [0 e+ w
The problems of Hong Kong may seem a long way from the UK, but with two major London-listed and regulated banks still big players in its financial system, HSBC and Standard Chartered, what is happening in the territory is of close interest to the British authorities.
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Last year’s Bank of England stress tests on HSBC and Standard Chartered focused predominately on the impact of a Chinese and Hong Kong financial crisis to the exclusion of almost all other risks. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, _6 H9 V! D3 |9 r) i5 V  v

In the case of HSBC, the lender was told to model for a halving in Hong Kong property and stock market values, as well as a 50pc reduction in mainland property.
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Even HSBC’s house broker, Credit Suisse,appears alarmed at the storm clouds gathering over China and recently cut its recommendation on the bank’s shares from “buy” to “sell”, warning about the potential unwind of the dollar-renminbi “carry” trade.

Although neither HSBC nor Standard Chartered are likely to have lent much directly to mainland Chinese businesses the issue is more a question of whether they have lent to financial institutions that have lent to businesses that could be hit hard in the event of a severe downturn.
Victor Wang at Credit Suisse points out that it is almost impossible to distinguish “real” trade financing from “carry trade”, but estimates that the speculative trading could be worth at least $200bn (£120.5bn).

Hong Kong’s financial supervisor is widely seen as one of the world’s best macro prudential regulators, but Innes-Ker questions whether even the super-savvy Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) can save the territory from the crisis that could be unleashed if China’s credit bubble were to burst in an uncontrollable fashion.

“The biggest risk is that you’ve got a financial sector that is several times the size of the economy and you have to question whether the authority’s ability to step in is relatively constrained,”he says.
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Others are more sanguine about the risks.

“The Chinese economy is so controlled they will be able to manage any issues. The idea that the authorities don’t see these problems is ridiculous. If something is happening it is because they tolerate it,” says one Hong-Kong based banker.

Boom or bust, Hong Kong is in for a rollercoaster ride.

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-7 12:29 PM

H股萬億短債殺埋身
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【蘋果統計】
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國企近萬億元（人民幣．下同）短債殺埋身！業績期剛過，本報統計非金融類H指成份股成績，發現平均淨負債率已逼近七成，按年再升5個百分點，不少短債比例更急升，總金額急速飆三成，至9,135億元，佔總債務逾半。分析憂慮，利率改革下內地息口趨升，過往在資金市場佔盡優勢的國企，未來亦難免要在還款及融資上受壓，融資成本將有蠶食盈利之虞，或成為內地經濟信心持續低迷的死穴，股價亦恐跑輸大市。
記者：林靜　黃尹華

撇除內銀、內險及證券三大金融類板塊後，歸納出23隻H指成份股全年成績表，發現在整體純利只微升4%下，65%H指淨負債比率按年計轉差，平均淨負債達69%，當中六隻股份比率飆逾100%，以電力、資源及基建股最重災，最重債者有中建材（3323）及華能國電（902），比率分別達456%及234%。更令人擔憂是，整體長債輕微上升7%，至約1.1萬億元的同時，短債則勁升31%，大幅推升短債比例七個百分點，至51%，整體債務則增近17%，至超過2萬億元。os.tvboxnow.com# P4 e9 q; }/ _3 q, @% T

TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* o4 Y/ e$ D4 `& X' g3 [- p; X; C- s
■H股淨負債比率轉差，其中資源企業為重災之一。 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% j1 y4 |9 A/ v" D3 |8 W! r) N
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息口趨升　還款能力恐轉差

有「基金教父」之稱的交銀施羅德投資管理（香港）副董事長雷賢達擔憂，在利率市場化的前提下，內地息口勢持續攀升，國企還款能力或轉弱，若再遇上銷售不理想，財政壓力就更大，並有機會逐步浮現在盈利表現上。雷賢達又補充指，H股短債急升，或因實際經濟及銷售表現，與企業預期有差距，令到資金流轉不足，要以短債「過日子」，意味財政壓力已經開始浮面。os.tvboxnow.com1 n1 ?) X, @6 y3 v1 J

產能過剩　陷入惡性循環

事實上，H股在短債急升的同時，23間H股總利息開支亦上升18%，至914億元，佔整體負債比例由去年的4.4%，微升至4.5%，反映息口已漸見上升勢頭；另外，有四間高負債H股的利息開支已大於純利，當中去年純利勁減近九成至7.77億元的兗煤（1171），一年利息支出已達17.7億元，較純利高出逾倍。
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高負債股越來越重債已陷惡性循環，背後原因是過度投資導致產能過剩，如「負債王」中建材的重債問題拖累股價遠遜同業，過往一年股價下跌14.7%，海螺（914）卻升34.8%，在今年內地經濟下行和去槓桿的大環境下，負債重的國企股難以翻身，恐怕將繼續沉淪。

國泰君安首席經濟學家林采宜指出，中央要求去槓桿，再加上內地即將出現更多信託、企業債違約的個案，預期今年下半年內地資金成本將會上升，過往在融資上受到照顧的國企，在三中全會的改革藍圖之下，日後在資金市場的優勢將逐步減少，尤其內地有縮減過剩產能的壓力，銀行將抽緊對建材、煤炭等過剩產能行業的融資，上述行業將高危。至於交銀國際首席策略師洪灝亦指，除融資成本趨升外，今年經濟下行，企業盈利增長放緩，對債重國企更為不利。( ~6 M8 f/ |9 r$ i8 Y2 W; u1 i

雷賢達表示，H股高負債雖難言對市場帶來負面影響，但可以想像在未來一段不短的時間，市場仍會對內地經濟重拾動力存疑，令投資市場仍需要時間收復信心。os.tvboxnow.com0 O# d8 I, ~; S( e

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打貪未奏效　應酬開支增17%
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■一直被中央「死盯」的中煤能源等資源類板塊企業的應酬開支有縮減趨勢。


【不跌反升】公仔箱論壇7 D8 n( b& Y! b- J
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內地新管治班子去年上任，即強調反貪及節省公款開支，本報翻查H指成份股的A股上市年報，當中主動披露去年辦公、差旅、會議及交通費的企業有15間，即使當中不包括估計開支最大的三大油股及四大內銀股，惟已足以顯示一年下來打貪成效並不算顯著，去年合共相關開支達145億元（人民幣．下同），按年增加近17%，平均每名員工開支1.3萬元，意味每位國企員工平均每月可「豪飲豪食」近1,100元，2012年相關數字不足1,000元。0 _# P4 I5 b  n/ M* L9 l
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打貪下差旅及交通等費用不跌反升，主要由於相關開支最大的金融類板塊如內險及證券業，去年繼續「大花筒」，當中平保（2318）計及辦公雜費的相關費用多達49.6億元，按年飆六成，平均每位員工豪花2.4萬元，增幅達五成；太保（2601）相關開支亦增約8.3%，平均每位員工花費4.5萬元；至於中信証券（6030）相關開支增近三成，至4.9億元。
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資源類企業相關使費減

不過，一直被中央「死盯」的資源類板塊卻顯然乖乖就範，兗煤（1171）、中煤（1898）、江銅（358）及紫金（2899）相關支出跌幅介乎0.3%至25%，當中中煤平均每名員工使費勁縮超過800元，至3,190元；兗煤則大減627元，至1,570元。
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國企改革難狂減債
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■李克強在3月初政府工作報告中，提出「要加快發展混合所有制」。
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【實施困難】

國務院總理李克強在3月初政府工作報告中，提出「要加快發展混合所有制」，各地國資委紛紛提出要提高國資上市率、引入民資參股等措施，作為國企改革重頭戲，預料港股之後亦將有更多國企會被整體上市。不過有分析認為，中央要發展混合所有制，引入更多資本，理論上可以減低資產負債比率，但要在本身已經債重的國企實施有困難，負債問題難以紓緩。

AMTD證券業務部總經理鄧聲興表示，若更多中資股集體上市，將涉及大量資產注入，上市公司的現金流有機會改善，有助減少債務比率，但只限於理論層面，實際國資委對整體上市名單謹慎，受惠國企數目有限，而目前債重國企多數為產能過剩行業，包括水泥、鋼材、煤炭等，即使獲注入資產，該些資產的負債率可能更高。「基金教父」雷賢達亦指，倘若如中石化（386）般將好項目出售，以支持煉油業發展的做法，即使短期有利減債，但長線不是好辦法。

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