; q% M! A* n+ m# I + O8 O' R1 P! {: P0 aFinancial typhoon warning for Hong Kong 4 }* S! N, O( f4 u$ xtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbBy Harry Wilson公仔箱論壇0 f+ L( t% C8 D* N
1 \' {$ Y% `8 i# F) h- C) v2 u; x2 ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe city is showing worrying signs of being at the centre of the next financial crisis ; Y2 X$ J$ K4 \# {" x) i2 |! |TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, A' T+ F) P' f" w9 k8 j
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb* ]; C' i0 H' W' Y" ? tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb b. \: W ^2 a! L
Offshore subsidiaries of China’s largest state-controlled banks are using Hong Kong as abase for sourcing foreign currency funding to pump back into the domestic economyos.tvboxnow.com G" ] [! u4 k
, V# c8 e' h, d# ~9 c/ f
9 J3 h7 i1 i- H- h9 j公仔箱論壇The restaurants are fully booked, the shops are packed, the financial markets are booming. For Hong Kong things have, on the face of it, never been so good. $ i3 U$ g6 [! ^os.tvboxnow.com 9 V; o- ?( m: [" Q“One country, two systems” has proved to be a good deal for the former British island colony that today has become a financial centre, not just to rival its old ruler but to eclipse it.5 D- n8 R& m2 y/ d9 }( ?" ]
4 M. j! z0 {- k4 a qWork in London as a middle-ranking investment banker and you can hope to earn about £286,000 a year in salary and bonuses. Do the same job in Hong Kong and you can earn an extra £30,000. , V0 A9 j" v3 u8 i7 a/ A: u, N4 p2 VTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% h0 N$ X5 `) x7 z9 U: u) S. D
Take into account the city state’s low personal tax rate and you are looking at a considerably more lucrative career.An attractive prospect as long as you are not too bothered by the dire airpollution.8 d+ z6 ?' f/ q% q" R
9 [1 @4 w! Q: g- YTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' t$ M* G& s( j6 ?$ y
“It has shops to rival New York and offshore banking services to match Geneva,” says one Hong Kong-based investment banker who long ago left London for Asia.os.tvboxnow.com1 {$ N8 ]3 ?: p/ t8 J
公仔箱論壇: B! Z6 w$ k- S6 d( S ?
Last year, a record 54 million tourists, most of them from the Chinese mainland, thronged through the island’s increasingly jammed shopping malls, while millionaires and billionaires from the People’s Republic bought up luxury properties, feeding a real estate boom to match any seen in the West. 1 ?$ M0 c7 P1 ^1 ~6 R公仔箱論壇 3 O7 Z! ~1 d' @6 X; ?$ ]The Chinese influx, while profitable, has not been to the taste of all the territory’s citizens, who blame “the locusts” for pushing up home prices and forcing them out of central districts. os.tvboxnow.com, U& g& ?3 i2 b4 Y; I2 O% C, ~
0 P c" |+ x9 ]) P, u' _0 Otvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAt the same time, Hong Kong has the continued to hold the dubious distinction of topping The Economist’s “crony-capitalism”index, with billionaires estimated to have squirrelled away fortunes equivalent to nearly 60pc of GDP, more than treble the level in second-placed Russia. ; p1 R% B/ B+ e) r
The boom, therefore, is not one that has been universally applauded or universally shared, adding to the sense of an unbalanced economy. ) }$ I% q' X) z2 B5 xWith every boom there is also the ever-present spectre of bust. Hong Kong knows a thing or two about this and its modern financial history has been marked by a series of spectacular bubbles followed by huge crashes. / b* f/ r8 w9 J) t9 ^$ j9 l9 y4 n8 A- hos.tvboxnow.comos.tvboxnow.com$ Q) F: p' \) _9 s+ P2 T* U$ A
Duncan Innes-Ker, an Asia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, has followed Hong Kong’s ups and downs for several years and says the present boom is the natural consequence of the West’s and particularly the American response to the crisis. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! g( L( n3 u! C( {8 t( O1 v
+ m; K7 L# L: x( [' B3 f, V8 R4 O公仔箱論壇“When you get low US interest rates you get a property bubble in Hong Kong. To my mind, this looks like the latest in a cycle of boom and busts,” says Innes-Ker. ' r' Y* Q6 O! y/ w( O
$ o! C" Y" {/ [8 Q, {) B公仔箱論壇However, Asianomics, a Hong Kong-based research firm, thinks the current upcycle is masking the tell-tale signs of a sharp and possibly unprecedented correction. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* D- Z% b( v6 f- H+ x$ n
4 I! z) I/ V: M4 T; ~tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb“Hong Kong is in the path of the typhoon developing on the mainland,” says Sharmila Whelan, an analyst at Asianomics. 公仔箱論壇" T) k, o1 O* ~
8 p! X& z- H x
“A nasty downturn in China and a sudden sharp correction in the Hong Kong property market would severely buffet the territory’s economy. China’s problems have become insurmountable and the likelihood that 2014 will prove the year of reckoning is growing,” says Whelan. / D9 F( ^9 I" JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。She and her colleagues last month published a comprehensive analysis of Hong Kong’s current position and concluded that a bust was already apparent and that its cause was the same as that of the boom:China. , m- C5 e7 [# E; b( b2 a
. k: _6 S6 l; i& qTo see why, you have to look closely at the changes that have taken place in the financial relationship between Hong Kong and China since the crash of 2008. 2 `( q' b# L" C 5 v, p# K' l, P公仔箱論壇Before the crisis, China had never represented more than 10pc of the total external claims of Hong Kong-based financial institutions, but with the implosion of the West, the island’s exposure to the mainland has rocketed and, as of late last year, stood at 49pcof claims. & j! m3 n2 r& |# @& }+ _$ T/ z$ J 3 `- P- t, G7 T% Y$ d" l公仔箱論壇Much of the rise has come from the rapid growth of the offshore subsidiaries of China’s largest state-controlled banks,which have increasingly used Hong Kong as a base for sourcing foreign currency funding to pump back into the domestic economy. 3 g) Q( p! l, P- s( N. L2 Htvb now,tvbnow,bttvb . ]9 h, s7 ^' J' vThis has been accelerated by the People’s Bank of China’s clampdown on renminbi lending, which has led Chinese banks and companies to borrow money cheaply offshore, mainly in dollars, to invest at home at higher rates of interest. : w2 Q# d2 e9 T4 O$ u7 ktvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 y2 w# j9 z! y$ K% i
Moody’s last month issued a “negative”outlook on the Hong Kong-based operations of three out of five of the larger banks, including those of China Construction Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), over the rapid growth in their loan books. ) d9 f4 c/ c5 G
# r% Y6 N$ f' M/ S1 p' B
One of the most extreme examples is Wing Lung Bank, which is currently being taken over by Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, which has almost doubled its lending in the last four years as it ramped up its mainland loan book from 8pc of total loans to 40pc by the middle of 2013. - _4 A5 ^) C2 ?. V* }4 K
% V, I& l4 ^/ l# {; u
This has helped feed the growth in China over the last five years of the largest and most rapid expansion in credit in history that has transformed the People’s Republic of China into the world’s second largest economy on the back of a construction and manufacturing boom without precedent. - t5 O% ?" v w' `公仔箱論壇6 o: c: D6 s7 |* Z
“This is a PRC town,” says one senior Hong Kong-based banker. “A decade ago if you heard someone speaking Mandarin you assumed they had accidentally walked over the border, today you can’t get a good job unless you speak it.” : ?1 X0 ^5 O4 n$ }. s9 ^TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 [0 g. u* n+ v5 q5 s" L
Andrew Scott, professor of economics at London Business School, says the danger to Hong Kong from its exposure to a Chinese crash is clear. “Hong Kong banks are definitely exposed to the mainland through significant lending and are very dependent on the People’s Republic of China central bank for liquidity in renminbi. * u6 s; H9 x A U( B9 dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇# d% D/ T+ k- |/ H1 h
“So a real estate crisis in the PRC would have a major impact on Hong Kong bank balance sheets and GDP. Of course, if a PRC crisis meant less Western money flowing into China that would also affect Hong Kong,” he says. ' I3 p( C! S7 ]3 H) _& v6 o6 a4 [- T
The problems of Hong Kong may seem a long way from the UK, but with two major London-listed and regulated banks still big players in its financial system, HSBC and Standard Chartered, what is happening in the territory is of close interest to the British authorities. ( f: w8 X' N2 h; m3 ^% c
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 S6 T2 |( n z/ e) G
Last year’s Bank of England stress tests on HSBC and Standard Chartered focused predominately on the impact of a Chinese and Hong Kong financial crisis to the exclusion of almost all other risks. $ Y& s o% c& G$ Q& ?+ Gos.tvboxnow.com$ Y! t3 Y' V. Q5 C: ?) i
In the case of HSBC, the lender was told to model for a halving in Hong Kong property and stock market values, as well as a 50pc reduction in mainland property. a _* \0 Y( \ S4 C " n# V& o% {! D8 e' m公仔箱論壇Even HSBC’s house broker, Credit Suisse,appears alarmed at the storm clouds gathering over China and recently cut its recommendation on the bank’s shares from “buy” to “sell”, warning about the potential unwind of the dollar-renminbi “carry” trade. 2 j+ K7 U. _* S3 F6 k7 l, p5 h
) p, O: Y. V2 k, J' n8 LTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Although neither HSBC nor Standard Chartered are likely to have lent much directly to mainland Chinese businesses the issue is more a question of whether they have lent to financial institutions that have lent to businesses that could be hit hard in the event of a severe downturn. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. b+ _$ `! ^# O& s2 [
Victor Wang at Credit Suisse points out that it is almost impossible to distinguish “real” trade financing from “carry trade”, but estimates that the speculative trading could be worth at least $200bn (£120.5bn). TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 Y% u+ g: A# q' E3 I; }
8 F e c( I, E) b. g- O' K9 G
Hong Kong’s financial supervisor is widely seen as one of the world’s best macro prudential regulators, but Innes-Ker questions whether even the super-savvy Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) can save the territory from the crisis that could be unleashed if China’s credit bubble were to burst in an uncontrollable fashion. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- c* O1 |% W R! P! w
: L7 s: e2 z$ g6 F7 \
“The biggest risk is that you’ve got a financial sector that is several times the size of the economy and you have to question whether the authority’s ability to step in is relatively constrained,”he says. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 X- ^- o0 O6 ?) G
2 h* w. Q5 G: l( l: O! Los.tvboxnow.comOthers are more sanguine about the risks. 公仔箱論壇6 `& B* E% H6 M* s! A
公仔箱論壇% x7 U$ ~% K7 q/ ?. q$ Y
“The Chinese economy is so controlled they will be able to manage any issues. The idea that the authorities don’t see these problems is ridiculous. If something is happening it is because they tolerate it,” says one Hong-Kong based banker. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 T/ T' c+ q) w7 {! w
os.tvboxnow.com: u; k# ^' Y, N& @! @
Boom or bust, Hong Kong is in for a rollercoaster ride. 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-7 12:29 PM
H股萬億短債殺埋身 x9 O# c! \" H
4 \* I3 U9 J* o: v: [6 @' g, N+ P r
【蘋果統計】 $ H$ O' a* X# f; o4 U+ x" l2 h8 q/ Nos.tvboxnow.comTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 `' _' L9 }' `) y
國企近萬億元（人民幣．下同）短債殺埋身！業績期剛過，本報統計非金融類H指成份股成績，發現平均淨負債率已逼近七成，按年再升5個百分點，不少短債比例更急升，總金額急速飆三成，至9,135億元，佔總債務逾半。分析憂慮，利率改革下內地息口趨升，過往在資金市場佔盡優勢的國企，未來亦難免要在還款及融資上受壓，融資成本將有蠶食盈利之虞，或成為內地經濟信心持續低迷的死穴，股價亦恐跑輸大市。 3 U. [$ p: k; h; L% v: t8 E3 W$ }TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。記者：林靜 黃尹華 " M% L8 a' k) R, ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb os.tvboxnow.com7 O9 b& L- p. R
撇除內銀、內險及證券三大金融類板塊後，歸納出23隻H指成份股全年成績表，發現在整體純利只微升4%下，65%H指淨負債比率按年計轉差，平均淨負債達69%，當中六隻股份比率飆逾100%，以電力、資源及基建股最重災，最重債者有中建材（3323）及華能國電（902），比率分別達456%及234%。更令人擔憂是，整體長債輕微上升7%，至約1.1萬億元的同時，短債則勁升31%，大幅推升短債比例七個百分點，至51%，整體債務則增近17%，至超過2萬億元。 + X/ @) W! G! v" `/ Mos.tvboxnow.comos.tvboxnow.com9 J- o: L3 `# f, R/ E. i ) T5 [; m# g; G) A4 F0 E1 N ■H股淨負債比率轉差，其中資源企業為重災之一。 os.tvboxnow.com7 I3 R( P( v# u6 C: o
1 l) H, W/ _9 `% L" T- v+ v( _, z, kTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。os.tvboxnow.com1 {1 V, H: M, w/ y/ P w
息口趨升 還款能力恐轉差0 M( D: b& o+ j- G; W
5 g7 z8 U, O# f+ `, ~8 P) N. H有「基金教父」之稱的交銀施羅德投資管理（香港）副董事長雷賢達擔憂，在利率市場化的前提下，內地息口勢持續攀升，國企還款能力或轉弱，若再遇上銷售不理想，財政壓力就更大，並有機會逐步浮現在盈利表現上。雷賢達又補充指，H股短債急升，或因實際經濟及銷售表現，與企業預期有差距，令到資金流轉不足，要以短債「過日子」，意味財政壓力已經開始浮面。 ' [( d# X# l4 x; s2 c. ]: ~/ Nos.tvboxnow.comos.tvboxnow.com7 M' o7 v3 u$ k- i- n- j% M
產能過剩 陷入惡性循環公仔箱論壇$ |) Q& L2 l2 O- ^% e
Y& s H2 g" K事實上，H股在短債急升的同時，23間H股總利息開支亦上升18%，至914億元，佔整體負債比例由去年的4.4%，微升至4.5%，反映息口已漸見上升勢頭；另外，有四間高負債H股的利息開支已大於純利，當中去年純利勁減近九成至7.77億元的兗煤（1171），一年利息支出已達17.7億元，較純利高出逾倍。os.tvboxnow.com: e: U5 F& v& }/ d
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb b. \: W ^2 a! L
; \, f. W7 O; T8 \
" \2 u6 I, m7 o: o
os.tvboxnow.com4 r6 k6 Y6 F! N: ^