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標題: [時事討論] 沈旭暉: 假如西烏克蘭宣布獨立 [打印本頁]

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 10:26 AM 標題: 沈旭暉: 假如西烏克蘭宣布獨立

沈旭暉: 假如西烏克蘭宣布獨立tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ n* b- b3 O9 R: o; G9 b2 r4 Z2 V
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對於烏克蘭，香港人想起的多是足球或美女，但日前於首都基輔獨立廣場的示威及血腥鎮壓，卻被網民瘋傳；有人看到利沃夫「獨立」及烏國人民「勇武抗爭」而感到振奮；有人因為烏國最終還是逃不了大國霸權的悲劇感到神傷；有的卻可能只因為反對派拍的短片而加入廣傳行列，曾被喻為歐洲糧倉的烏克蘭，是否再次成為俄羅斯、歐盟及美國政治角力的「食物」，還是示威背後有着其本土精神？歐盟最近終提出制裁烏國，總統也願意提前大選，局勢是否就此穩定下來？本周專題帶大家來到這個地帶政治的核心國家，思考鎮壓以外的其他啟示。os.tvboxnow.com0 q# [: U  x' i. |* P4 V% O) ]+ n
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西烏克蘭的反對派據點利沃夫宣布脫離中央，會否是烏克蘭全面分裂的先聲？十年前，筆者曾寫了一篇關於烏克蘭的評論《撕裂烏克蘭、延續反恐戰》，不是說有玄學家的先見之明，只是烏克蘭東西分裂的苗頭出現已久，其相關背景，先不重複。現在不妨問一個問題：假如西烏克蘭真的宣布獨立建國，又會怎樣？
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首先，國界的爭議，就幾乎不可能解決。烏克蘭不是聯邦制國家，除了克里米亞自治共和國擁有清晰的自治範疇、權限，「東烏」、「西烏」都只是約定俗成叫法。雖然西烏克蘭不少領土是在斯大林時代兼併所得，然而若要具體劃界，哪裏是親俄文化圈的「東部」，哪裏是親西方文化圈的「西部」，並沒有完全客觀的中線劃分。
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邊界難分易惹糾紛  Y  G8 [0 _+ T; g" i

要是烏克蘭24個州、兩個直轄市都要公投歸入「東烏」或「西烏」，州以下的單位有不同意見，也可以再搞公投。要是「西烏」成立民兵，佔領半壁江山，再在控制範圍內一次過表決獨立，那就是曠日持久的全方位內戰。當歐盟和俄羅斯都已成為既得利益者，也不存在有份量的其他調解人，屆時局勢不一定像敍利亞慘烈，卻恐怕連南北塞浦路斯分治的相對和平也做不到。公仔箱論壇: k/ w1 @7 g0 M  L
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由於俄羅斯極不願意承認「西烏」獨立，「東烏」卻是原來的中央政府，擁有聯合國席位，「西烏」的國際空間會十分有限，就像科索沃那樣。目前持有科索沃護照的人，根本不能進入俄羅斯，去年就有科索沃球員因此不能進入莫斯科踢歐聯。「西烏」畢竟和「東烏」、俄羅斯交往密切，面積和人口亦不能和科索沃相提並論，要是這樣一個中型國家長期處於非正常狀態，對人民心理和國家發展都極為負面。
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何況「西烏」獨立了，會否變成一個天主教國家？這又是一個危機。「西烏」一直是「烏克蘭希臘天主教會」大本營，這次宣布分治的利沃夫，原來就是其大主教教座所在地。這教會聽命於梵蒂岡的羅馬教廷，和烏克蘭最多人信奉的東正教形成對立，卻在海外烏克蘭僑民當中得到較多支持。問題是東正教在「西烏」依然有一定影響力，一旦「西烏」獨立，宗教問題可能更為突出，連內部和諧和共識也難達成。

當「西烏」立國，沒有了俄羅斯支援，自然更希望加入歐盟。但要達到入盟的客觀準則，不是一天就辦到的事。歐盟並非要真心援助西烏克蘭，只是以此牽制俄羅斯，隨時以「俄羅斯問題」為由拖延「西烏」入盟。烏克蘭經濟重鎮都在較富裕的東部，「西烏」則以農業為主，一旦「西烏」真的入了歐盟，歐盟的「共同農業政策」會否「微調」補貼，也值得關注。可以想像的是，俄羅斯可能對「西烏」貨物實行保護政策，更可能不再以優惠價提供能源給「西烏」，都會令「西烏」經濟百上加斤。不是說和歐盟整合不可能帶來出路，只是在得到新經濟定位前，「西烏」獨立初年的經濟水平，可能比現在更差，其他社會民生問題也不易解決。/ Y% E2 b0 ?' _/ t: R& z. f! |
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先建聯邦才是王道

更令人憂慮的，是目前無論是烏克蘭中央政府、還是反對派陣營，都已用到「恐怖分子」、「反恐」一類字眼加諸對方，這是極不健康的徵兆。假如兩地民族主義被挑起，都以此鞏固政權，伴隨而來的自然是找內奸一類行動，再繼而出現大規模人口轉移，這在東歐歷史曾反覆出現。這樣的折騰，需要更長時間讓社會回復常態，治安亦很可能變壞。
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說了那麼多，是否「西烏」一定獨立無望？不是的。是否應爭取獨立，是「西烏」人自己才能決定的問題，但真的決定爭取，在目前國際格局，只會有上述後果。符合國際遊戲規則的獨立方式，應是先掩飾自己的獨立訴求，找一個面目模糊的中性候選人參選總統，贏了大選，然後以中央身份推動聯邦制，讓「東烏」、「西烏」分別享有克里米亞那樣的自治共和國地位，鞏固了邊界，確立了政治、經濟模式，再不斷修憲，最終和平分手。過程當然依然困難，但起碼是王道。
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作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 10:28 AM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-2-23 10:35 AM 編輯

Carl Bildt: Europe’s Crisis in Ukraine
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STOCKHOLM – How Ukraine’s profound crisis will end is impossible to predict. We in the European Union and the United States are doing what we can to secure a peaceful transition to a more stable democracy, and the implementation, at long last, of urgently needed reforms. And the agreement now concluded between President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition should create a new possibility for this.os.tvboxnow.com, Y2 m: f2 d4 Y% d3 N, I/ m. c

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If the agreement is not honored, Ukraine could well continue its descent into chaos and conflict, which would be in no one’s interest. That is why Ukraine’s crisis is a European crisis. And, though we cannot know how the crisis will end, we should be very clear about how it started.  X( H5 l$ W6 A& h) k

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For years, Ukraine sought a closer relationship with the EU. Its leaders warmly endorsed the promise of enhanced ties under the EU’s Eastern Partnership, and pushed for an EU Association Agreement, together with a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. When those talks,which began under the previous Ukrainian government, were concluded, the agreement was endorsed by all four presidents and all 14 prime ministers to hold office since Ukraine achieved independence in 1991.2 _( _* c3 w. Z3 D! Q% Q

But, as the EU and Ukraine were addressing remaining issues ahead of the November 2013 Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, where Ukraine was to sign its Association Agreement, something suddenly changed. From August onward, Russian policymakers embraced the openly declared aim of knocking Ukraine off the course that it had chosen. A political campaign against the agreement was launched, and the Kremlin mixed targeted sanctions with threats of harsher measures against the already-weak Ukrainian economy.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' k0 z# _7 s* A) Z

Russian leaders publicly stated that if Ukraine signed a free-trade agreement with the EU, it would lose its free-trade deal with Russia, and high tariffs would be imposed on all goods and services. Severe economic pressure, it was made clear, would become open economic warfare.
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich gave way. In explaining to EU leaders that he was not ready to sign the Association Agreement, he was very clear that Russian pressure was responsible for his decision.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 {- j2 ]3 A# D2 s
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This set in motion the chain of events that has now resulted in carnage and death in the streets of Kyiv. For many Ukrainians,Europe was the symbol of hope of a better life; suddenly, they felt betrayed by a political elite that they had long perceived as being incorrigibly corrupt.So, to be clear, it was the Kremlin’s pressure, and the Yanukovich administration’s vacillation, that produced the current crisis.

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Had Yanukovich decided to stand up to Russian pressure,there is no doubt that Ukraine would have faced difficulties. But, with an EU Association Agreement and the possibility of solid financial aid and reform assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the Russian measures would not have been sustainable., J# b& k- ~. l' c

Of course, the reforms asked of Ukraine would have been difficult, but no more difficult than what had been asked of other ex-communist countries that saw their future in and with Europe. There would have been light at the end of the tunnel, and, as Ukraine embraced the reform process, it would have been seen as a determined and democratic European country.
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Instead, Yanukovich opted for a short-term strategy narrowly focused on his own political survival – a strategy that the protesters increasingly came to view as a game of deceit and betrayal. As the regime started to use violence to repress its opponents, violent opposition groups gained credibility.0 c" W2 K4 c) @. Y) }0 q  W3 g
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Free trade with both Russia and the EU would obviously havebeen good for Ukraine’s economy, thus providing a boost to the Russian economy as well, notwithstanding the oft-used but fundamentally bogus argument that EU goods would flow into Russia via Ukraine. (Has anyone heard Americans complaining that the free-trade agreement between Mexico and the EU is undermining the US economy?)

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Russia is intent on building a new strategic bastion in the form of its proposed Eurasia Union, and it seems determined to force Ukraine to join. While publicly grumbling about supposed EU pressure on Ukraine, the reality is that Russia brutally extorted the country into abandoning its EU course. That is the source of this crisis; the facts speak for themselves.os.tvboxnow.com9 p- ]* v+ l2 S% }4 i

Even under the best of circumstances, the road back for Ukraine will be difficult. Russian pressure and destabilization, and the crisis to which they have led, have created new fissures in Ukraine’s society and have caused further damage to its fragile economy. And that damage could, one day, spill over into Russia. The Kremlin should have an interest in a stable and reforming neighbor that, like other countries, is also seeking a close relationship with the EU.. H* J1 W) s) }/ S3 Z! h9 |' W1 z& f. A
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Carl Bildt has been Sweden’s foreign minister since 2006, and was Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! w" u8 J9 {( D7 @* b3 T- z

Yevhen Bystrytsky: Can Ukraine Be Saved?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 Q3 d4 h9 ^8 X1 [4 I9 e
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KYIV – Acrid black smoke hangs in the air and stings the eye in much of central Kyiv, where state repression is dampening hope of resolving Ukraine’s political crisis. With a truce between the government and the opposition shattered only hours after it came into effect, and with dozens of people reported killed in recent days, any hope for an end to the country’s deepening civil disorder appears to be fading fast.公仔箱論壇4 j+ h4 O% }# q- _& d/ O7 @
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Yes, a tentative settlement has been reached, following mediation by European Union foreign ministers, with a promise of early elections. But such settlements have been proposed before, and no agreement is likely to gain broad acceptance unless it includes the immediate departure of President Viktor Yanukovich.
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In fact, Yanukovich’s government seems prepared to use any and all measures to remain in power. Taking a page from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, tax police are prosecuting civil-society organizations in the hope of cowing them into silence and irrelevance. Yet,despite such intimidation, Ukrainians from all walks of life have been protesting for three months in cities across the country.
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At its heart, this is a struggle between Ukraine’s European-oriented West and its Russian-fixated East for the country’s geopolitical soul. Will Ukraine move closer to the European Union or instead join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union?

Despite the mounting violence, Ukraine is not on the vergeof civil war – at least not yet. But make no mistake: the risk of the country –and its military – splintering is very real, as Yanukovich’s decision to sackVolodymyr Zamana, the head of the armed forces, attests. The conflict needs tobe stopped now.3 T3 g* @6 y; y6 Y1 ?' \
To achieve that, Ukraine needs a transitional government ofexperts and a new constitution that returns the country to the system thatprevailed until a decade ago, with power divided between Parliament and thepresident. Moreover, a presidential election should be held within threemonths, with a new parliament voted in soon after.

But Yanukovich has shown that he does not want a negotiated solution. Until the recent surge in violence, it seemed that dialogue might defuse tensions. An amnesty for detained protesters was offered, and protesters agreed to withdraw from government buildings. But when demonstrators fulfilled their promise and evacuated occupied buildings, Yanukovich resorted to force in an effort to end the protests altogether.
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Indeed, the police began firing into crowds of demonstrators, and have reportedly killed at least 70 and injured hundreds more. Hospitals are overflowing, and many people are avoiding state clinics, because they are afraid of being detained – or worse. The activist Yuri Verbitsky, a mathematical physicist, was abducted by five men in late January from a Kyiv hospital, where he had gone to seek treatment after being injured by a stun grenade at a demonstration. Verbitsky’s battered body was found the next day in a forest outside the city.4 T4 e* h: D" V3 G( i
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Any prospect for resolving the crisis ultimately depends on regaining citizens’ trust in their police and security forces, which are now viewed by many as an occupying force.To reestablish the public’s confidence, there can be no impunity for those who fired bullets or gave the orders to fire. Officials’ excessive use of force,and the government’s reliance on semi-criminal thugs (known as titushki)to attack protesters, must be thoroughly investigated.

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But, even as the ongoing violence makes such an investigation all the more urgent, Ukraine’s prosecutor and courts refuse to act. That is why it is crucial that a high-level international mission –comprising civil-society leaders, the Council of Europe, and the European Union– launch a comprehensive inquiry and pressure Ukraine’s government to cooperate.; s$ `/ s3 f# G/ T# }

The EU and the United States have introduced diplomatic sanctions since the latest round of murderous violence began. This should include a travel ban not only on all officials who ordered, oversaw, or implemented the crackdown, but also on Yanukovich’s political enablers: the oligarchs who are now sitting on the sidelines while spiriting large sums of money out of the country.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 ]' s; I( s- e5 Y9 O& a

Sanctions should be lifted only when a credible investigation into the last three months of violence is permitted and a technocratic government is in place (at which point the EU and its member states should offer concrete economic assistance). Prime Minister Mykola Azarovresigned last month, ostensibly to make way for such a solution. But Yanukovich has refused to take the next step, or to commit to constitutional reforms,which largely explains the protesters’ growing frustration – and their determination to press ahead in the face of brutal repression.. ~$ |/ d8 H; x+ v# ]4 [& n0 v
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There is a perception in the West that all of Ukraine’s political forces are weak, divided, and corrupt. And there are growing concerns,often fueled by sensationalist media coverage, that far-right forces are gaining the upper hand within the opposition camp. But, though such forces do exist, the vast majority of demonstrators on the Maidans across the country are ordinary people angry about abuse of power, state violence, official impunity,and corruption.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。  q! ^9 ?/ N, q8 [' F& H

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For the venal and vicious elites who have taken control of Ukraine, the real threat is these demonstrators’ perseverance, not the provocations of a radical fringe. Indeed, while I refuse to believe that Ukraine’s march to civil war is unstoppable, I also know that our citizens will never be silenced again.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ i) d) H" {( t# ?4 Z
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- K1 h+ f2 K9 y6 W
Yevhen Bystrytsky is Executive Director of the International Renaissance Foundation
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作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 11:11 AM

烏國會罷免總統 5月大選亞努科維奇堅拒辭職前「美女總理」獲釋! S- ~0 d! d) \$ V
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【明報專訊】烏克蘭局勢昨急轉直下。激進反對派昨日向總統亞努科維奇攤牌，後者早上突然離開首都，至下午親亞氏國會議長辭職，反對派接任後，國會隨即通過法案，讓反對派前「美女總理」季莫申科重獲自由。亞氏傍晚接受電視訪問時表明不會辭職或出國，又狠批反對派發動政變，但國會晚上隨即通過罷免亞努科維奇，並提前在5月底大選。軍警則表明不會介入，顯示保安部隊不願再鎮壓民眾的立場。公仔箱論壇$ Z% Y: a" d8 o. I  a$ S8 l

總統昨突離首都稱憂人身安全
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烏國朝野上周五（21日）才在歐盟和俄羅斯斡旋下達成和平協議，決定提早在今年底前大選，但僅1日後就出現逆轉。亞努科維奇昨晨突然離開首都基輔，前往東北部的第二大城市哈爾科夫（Kharkov），其助手指他並非辭職，只是與其當地政治盟友協商。基輔市內多幢政府建築隨即人去樓空，連警衛都撤出，部份示威者自發組織保安隊伍守衛，據報約300人未受阻攔進入了市郊的總統官邸。( f2 s! u1 W- D
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亞氏盟友、國會議長雷巴克昨日則以健康理由請辭，由反對派祖國黨的圖爾奇諾夫（Oleksandr Turchynov）當選接任。後者是季莫申科盟友，曾任其副手。國會隨後通過換上另一季氏盟友亞瓦科夫（ArsenAvakov）出任內政部長。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# f, ]- j" g: f
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東部俄語區質疑國會合法性
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烏克蘭東部俄語區不滿國會削減亞努科維奇權力，多名地方領袖與亞氏會面後，發表聲明質疑國會合法性，宣布接管當地。哈爾科夫地區首長聲言無意分裂國家，「相反我們希望守護它」，另一地方領袖則號召建立民間巡邏隊維持秩序。

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總統斥反對派土匪「如納粹奪權」0 `: ?" W) L* `3 @+ p% g
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亞努科維奇昨日亦發表電視講話，強調自己不會離國，亦不會辭職，強調他是「合法選出的總統」。他指突然出走是因為感到自己以及親信的安全，受到控制基輔市中心大片地區的示威者威脅，「我的車也遭槍擊，但我沒有恐懼」。

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他回擊反對派提前下台要求，形容「今日（昨日）發生的所有事基本上可概括為蓄意搶掠、土匪行徑和政變」，「那不是反對派，是土匪」。他又表明不會簽署容許政敵季莫申科獲釋的任何法案，「他們今日作出的決定是非法的，他們必然聽我怎麼說──我不準備簽署任何東西」。他又形容現時情與1930年代德國納粹奪權的情十分相似。

到了晚上，烏克蘭國會指亞努科維奇並未履行憲法責任，「變相自行離職」，並將大選日期進一步提前在5月25日舉行。議員隨後在議會廳站立鼓掌，並頌唱國歌慶祝。
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警方稱支持「人民」軍方不介入
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烏克蘭警方昨日發布聲明，表示支持「人民」與「快速變革」，軍方亦表明不會介入這次政治危機，顯示軍警再次鎮壓民眾的機會有所降低。os.tvboxnow.com' M! Y: {, P$ z8 Z8 @, a

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俄羅斯外交部長拉夫羅夫（Sergei Lavrov）昨表明「嚴重關注事件」，批評烏克蘭反對派「未曾履行任何一個承諾，卻推出新要求」，形容他們倒向「極端分子」，對國家主權和憲法秩序「構成直接威脅」。法國和德國昨日呼籲烏克蘭政府和反對派尊重和議，重建信任。
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（路透社/法新社/華爾街日報）
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前「美女總理」季莫申科的女兒（右）在國會通過提前釋放其母後，擁覑其他與會者喜極而泣。（路透社）

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在上周四（20日）基輔警民衝突中喪生的部分死者翌日舉殯，他們的棺木抬經獨立廣場，接受民眾致哀。（路透社）
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Yulia Tymoshenko addresses crowd in Kiev after release from prison, as MPs vote to impeach Viktor Yanukovychos.tvboxnow.com. S4 T8 H& G, I) I0 d* W* N
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作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 05:26 PM

852郵報:烏國國會罷免親俄總統　三困局未解局勢未許樂觀tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 g$ i8 y, h8 a1 A u
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. ], {0 j; k: x6 g) k6 a7 J

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連日來導致眾多示威者死傷的烏克蘭，昨日深夜出現政局變天。在親政府議長辭職下，烏克蘭國會通過罷免總統亞努科維奇，將於今年五月重新舉行大選。亞努科維奇拒絕承認國會的決定，並且已經出走首都基輔，去到較親俄的烏克蘭東部地區。被囚禁兩年多的「橙色革命」領袖，前總理季莫申科同時獲釋，並馬上宣佈將會參與五月的大選。而首都基輔，現時已落入親歐在野黨的控制。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; k& u+ v2 A" i3 Q8 Z
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然而，親歐派在基輔的勝利並不意味著烏克蘭的局勢將逐漸緩和。相反，倘若烏克蘭的東西部分歧、反對派內訌及歐美俄國勢力交鋒等三大困局未能解決，烏克蘭有可能會入分裂局面。
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 s* e0 ]4 I  y, q5 N8 W& b
在蘇聯時代，當時的蘇聯政權逼使烏克蘭人使用俄語。因此，烏克蘭語及俄語均是烏克蘭的通用語言。由於烏克蘭東部靠近俄羅斯，操俄語的民眾比率亦遠較西部地區高。因此，亞努科維奇在政治亂局之中選擇離開位於烏克蘭首都的基輔，而回到較支持自己的烏克蘭東部地區。變天後，不少東部地方政府馬上表示考慮增強自治權力。在文化差異及地緣政治因素下，烏克蘭可能在日後陷入分裂危機。
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其次，雖然前總理季莫申科終於出獄。然而，在示威期間，早有不少其他反對派領袖成功建立威信。包括烏克蘭民主改革聯盟的克里琴科，自由黨的特阿內博克等，還有不少烏克蘭民族主義者等。現時的反對派山頭處處，實際上並不團結。因此，一旦烏克蘭大局稍定，反對派領袖們會否一如二零一零年時，同樣親歐的時任總統尤先科及季莫申科互相傾軋，以致親俄派的亞努科維奇有機可乘，實屬未知之數。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 x/ ^8 r$ |& ?& v2 q
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最後，雖然美國經常被指在親歐派背後策動推翻烏克蘭親俄政府。俄羅斯早前亦流出美國駐烏克蘭大使紐蘭以粗口辱罵歐盟在事件上太過軟弱。然而，實際上美國自己亦早已將戰略重心移至亞太地區，近年對中東及東歐政局的參與，已然大大減少。相反，俄羅斯通往西歐的天然氣通道，大都位於烏克蘭，而西部地區，更是這些運輸氣管的「咽喉」所在。因此，俄羅斯要烏克蘭繼續「聽聽話話」的決心，比歐盟及美國，均要強得多。俄國總統普京對這個最新局勢會有什麼回應，亦將對烏克蘭局勢有決定性影響。

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-25 08:29 AM

沈旭暉: 大獨與小獨：克里米亞脫離烏克蘭．韃靼脫離克里米亞？tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 @) o$ a; y: i
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當克里米亞俄羅斯人思考是否要藉機爭取更大自治、脫離烏克蘭獨立，或回歸俄羅斯之際，其實轉過頭來，他們也給其他人牽制，那就是克里米亞韃靼人。
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克里米亞韃靼人出現在當地的淵源，可追溯至成吉思汗。成吉思汗西征建立四大汗國，其中拔都建立的欽察汗國進行內部分封，輾轉衍生了一系列子國，包括克里米亞汗國。這個汗國延續到一七八三年，遠比成吉思汗家族、其後人及附庸建立的其他汗國長命，原因之一是克里米亞韃靼人在鄂圖曼土耳其帝國興起後，願意成為其屬國，並成了伊斯蘭世界對抗東正教文明的橋頭堡，也算是一個區域大國。

換句話說，克里米亞韃靼人「自古以來」就是俄羅斯的大敵，不斷和莫斯科打仗，強盛時甚至會定期到烏克蘭或俄羅斯本部，捉拿斯拉夫人作奴隸貿易。俄羅斯強大後，克里米亞汗國被滅，境內韃靼人變成俄羅斯境內的少數民眾，但由沙皇時代到蘇聯時代，都依然被當作眼中釘，到了二戰期間全體被史太林流放，導致大量人口死亡，可謂變相種族滅絕，雙方可說仇深似海。os.tvboxnow.com& K& L% S2 `3 k% I

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韃靼歷史悲壯頗獲國際同情

自從烏克蘭獨立，克里米亞韃靼人作為當地原主人，終於被准許從中亞流放地回家。雖然他們的人口不再是多數，但也佔了今天克里米亞人口的百分之十二，而且因為歷史悲壯，得到頗多國際輿論支持，不少西方人覺得欠他們一個公道。% c" s. g, ]/ G2 W. R/ U- l$ d0 M

無論克里米亞俄人要獨立也好，回歸俄羅斯也好，當地韃靼人都會比烏克蘭人更反對，韃靼人領袖已稱利用目前亂局「分裂烏克蘭」是「叛國」行為。其實，克里米亞韃靼人歷史上和烏克蘭人也有不少恩怨，但兩害相權取其輕，還是弱勢的烏克蘭政府比強勢的俄羅斯民族主義容易應付。

雖然韃靼人口少，也沒有克里米亞自治共和國內部的自治區，但有烏克蘭政府承認的「克里米亞韃靼人大會」（Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People），作為克里米亞韃靼人「忽里勒台」的主要機關（「忽里勒台」是昔日蒙古推舉大汗的編制）。該機關曾宣布為克里米亞韃靼人的主權代表，有自己的旗和歌。雖然它只有代表韃靼人向國際社會、烏克蘭中央政府和克里米亞自治政府反映意見的功能，但也曾被克里米亞親俄政客以「活動違憲」為由要求取締。
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克里米亞韃靼人還有流亡各地的同胞作後援，他們雖然不一定需要獨立，但都希望捍衞自己的身份認同、爭取自己的家園。

假如克里米亞俄人真的走出這一步，理論上境內韃靼人同樣可以爭取「獨中獨」，要麼留在烏克蘭，要麼建立另一個自治共和國，總之不會願意回到俄羅斯手上。
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當然，由於他們沒有佔當地人口多數的聚居地區，要發起上述行動，操作上頗為困難。然而，若果克里米亞問題只是俄、烏爭議，國際社會始終難以干涉，就像九十年代的多次危機，都是由兩國高層直接解決，鮮有克里米亞人民的角色。但有了韃靼人這個少數族裔元素，反而令國際社會多了保護少數族裔、多元文化的責任，有了關注的空間，令局勢更加複雜。os.tvboxnow.com% J3 Y% \6 I- h) A- C

二之二．全文完

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-25 11:44 PM

852郵報: 本土派左右烏克蘭大局

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烏克蘭局勢似正出現微妙變化。據路透社報道，網上流傳烏克蘭前總統亞努科維奇的文件，指他曾計劃動用2萬多名警力鎮壓首都基輔的抗議民眾。文件的真偽難以證明，因為當亞努科維奇22日（上周六）晚間離開家鄉，並在獲知國會罷免他後倉卒逃亡，目前下落不明。新成立的烏克蘭臨時政府，則以「屠殺平民」的罪名通緝亞努科維奇。不過，俄羅斯總理梅德韋傑夫日前則形容，目前烏克蘭首都基輔發動只是一場「武裝暴動」，對當地新政權的合法性存疑。公仔箱論壇( a$ ]9 z! U* K

現時烏克蘭面臨分裂，形成親俄、親歐兩種勢力，加上本土主義派抬頭，令局勢更加嚴峻。現在的臨時政府似已群雄無首，逐漸成為俄國與美、歐國家展開的新角力。烏克蘭夾在其中，一方面意識形態希望親歐，但經濟與能源上仍需大幅依賴俄羅斯，可謂進退兩難。值得留意的是，正當美、俄分別大喊別介入烏克蘭內政之時，實際上只要任何一方輕舉妄動，就會觸發一場內戰，讓烏克蘭陷入割據分裂的狀態。os.tvboxnow.com6 c) r* q+ t1 c1 R' L3 ^' r

對於俄羅斯來說，當然希望拉攏烏克蘭，除烏克蘭屬前蘇聯之國土外，它還是重要腹地，對增強東歐諸國的地緣戰略起重要作用。但對於歐、美來說，也同樣正因烏克蘭這方面的戰略價值，更要設法討好烏克蘭境內的親歐人士和本土主義者，藉此聲勢浩蕩迎抗俄羅斯之勢，美俄的冷戰鐵幕，亦於是次衝突中若隱若現，而烏克蘭不過是雙方的一枚棋子。
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烏克蘭即將於5月舉行大選，若民望高企的前總理季莫申科能順利當選，則烏克蘭的政局將會稍為緩和，因為季莫申科立場親歐，且有與俄羅斯談判的經驗，相信歐、美、俄都會接受這個人選。但若由本土派人士當選，那麼國家難免會陷入僵局，令烏克蘭分裂。儘管如此，當下可以說的是，過渡政府勢弱，百廢待興，未來數月或已要面臨各國的操控。
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 _* C1 n: k' b% X+ N
烏克蘭現在陷入債務違約的危機，因為俄羅斯先前承諾向烏克蘭提供150億美元救助的計劃，現階段似乎很難付諸實施。至於歐盟，受希臘、意大利等國的債務度拖垮，恐怕對烏克蘭也愛莫能助。烏克蘭財政部表示，今明兩年需要350億美元援助，並要求在未來一兩周獲得第一筆援助金應急。烏克蘭在這大勢下，亦恐怕只能向俄羅斯屈服。過渡政府總統圖奇諾夫說，他希望烏克蘭同俄羅斯的關係是一種「新的、公平的、平等的、承認烏克蘭具有歐洲選擇權的鄰國關係。」然而此番說話，又有多少烏克蘭人會相信？1 ~( @& ]9 S0 p- U, Q
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