2 w9 j3 W, S' C* N* Y" n6 ~公仔箱論壇（9）群眾運動口號有直接民主、「大民主」等元素，作為推翻政府的理論基礎；公仔箱論壇" m) ]: t& R* C" v9 i. G- \4 x
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（10）革命強調非暴力，國家機器以擾亂秩序為由鎮壓，會立刻失去道德高地。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" i f r2 g+ x# ?0 ]7 o
3 S! F$ |: c6 u2 N" _$ ?9 z/ [tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb「由外到內再到外」：北京對顏色革命的回應公仔箱論壇# d% ]( N4 Z' [5 h
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 z( T9 `' Q# b# ?! p$ G
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以上模式觸動了北京最敏感的神經，自此北京開始了連串以「反顏色革命」為目標的舉措，「不行西方模式」、「維穩」等成了指導思想，社科院更推出《顏色革命的警告》紀錄片，作為高級官員和公安的教材。就此筆者的台灣同僚、政治大學國際關係學者陳至潔的論文〈中國對顏色革命做出的反應：積極進行的調式性威權主義〉有詳細介紹，內裏也提及香港，值得一讀。os.tvboxnow.com9 {0 \9 W- \2 n1 D0 J/ v" d
% I7 K* L2 |8 R# A* fTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。港人自然對「外國勢力干預香港內政」一類指控難以接受，但對北京一些朋友而言，香港作為西方和中國角力的前緣陣地「鐵證如山」，當顏色革命出現，就以香港為假想對象。這不是說北京純粹為了香港而緊張，而是有關部門擔心若香港也不能防，內地民主化更要小心，再碰上美國高調重返亞太，就成為驚弓之鳥。加上某種原因，對香港有實地了解、略懂國際局勢、也能向有關渠道提意見的人，大都習慣以「寧可信其有」的指導思想捕風捉影，致令一些本土爭議，容易被北京研判為「有出現顏色革命的可能」、「必須扼殺於萌芽狀態」。必須說明的是，這絕非北京閱讀香港的唯一框架，但因為「小心點總是好的」，北京對港政策還是出現了相應調整。筆者詳細閱讀了愛國媒體近年的所有相關評論，發現顏色革命的上述特徵不但被認為已逐一出現，甚至還已「被回應」了：tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 w3 P7 I' {8 D2 u. Q9 d' |
os.tvboxnow.com% r( M; }& P( y& `) s 「顏色革命」在香港：「被出現」與「被回應」TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 `2 K2 r/ j2 R0 B) y1 d) M3 J7 t
* V2 Q$ ]: o+ N# v. J% Dos.tvboxnow.com作為國際關係研究者，抽空而言，筆者不認為「反顏色革命」的框架毫無道理，因為中亞、東歐一些革命，確有可議之處；國家應捍衛利益這原則，亦無人反對。但在一國兩制下的香港這個國際都會，「需要」時，幾乎任何人都可以瓜田李下，假如這框架被無限上綱濫用，足以「所向無敵」，結果只會無故製造敵人，對國家利益帶來反效果。正因如此，我們了解這框架是需要的，起碼能明白誤會如何出現，讓雙方盡力避免其產生。否則讓文革的作風和語言壟斷相關話語權，對京港，都是雙輸。作者: felicity2010 時間: 2012-2-7 10:04 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2012-2-7 10:09 AM 編輯 ) W' e- w" _% w6 ?& K. l9 gos.tvboxnow.com 3 P7 W' g. d3 T, T5 Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvbMischa Gabowitsch: A Strategy for Russia’s Snow Revolution ! i: c, d. S/ p1 y0 t ?公仔箱論壇+ z- c8 o+ g5 g* b. f/ Q6 b( f
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[attach]1583967[/attach]TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 A4 c$ b& f3 r' C6 Q; @
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MOSCOW – Nonviolent revolutions do not always remain nonviolent, as the examples of uprisings in Egypt,Libya, and Syria in the Arab Spring have shown. But peaceful movements for regime change often do succeed. They have toppled illegitimate rulers, as with the post-Soviet“color revolutions” in Georgia and Ukraine,and ended apartheid in South Africa,for example, or, before that, the Jim Crow system in the American South.Non-violent movements broke British rule in India and Malawi, and brought down authoritarian regimes in Chile,the Philippines,and Portugal.公仔箱論壇: U* ~9 Z" i* M5 T
0 Q/ D9 {4 @0 Gtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbOn the surface, most of these cases seem so different from present-day Russia as to be irrelevant to the success or failure of the current protests against Vladimir Putin’s continued rule and the protesters’ call for free,fair, and competitive elections. But which differences are important? P$ ^" Q! N! o2 g. Qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ' J1 D3 T9 y& [, k# f. Wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe immediate outcomes of nonviolent movements for political change are not decided by macro-factors such as levels of education, unemployment, or the presence of a modern middle class. After all, civil resistance has succeeded in poor, backward countries, like India,and failed in rich, educated ones, like the Gulf states., ]3 n+ k: E( V, d6 _
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Nor do short-term windows of opportunity play a decisive role: no serious economic crisis was needed for Chileans to oust General Augusto Pinochet, and Panama’s Manuel Noriega survived a massive nonviolent protest movement, despite crippling economic problems and divisions within the ruling elite. ! X1 ^' ?; P2 f9 o7 @os.tvboxnow.com& `* q# e6 c, j0 @7 C+ U
Recent research by the sociologists Erica Chenoweth, Maria J. Stephan, and Sharon Erickson Nepstad shows that one factor more than any other determines whether nonviolent struggles succeed: protesters’ decision to adopt nonviolence itself. Indeed, Chenoweth and Stephan have shown that peaceful protests are more than twice as likely as violent confrontation to bring about complete or partial regime change. , \8 v( g8 ^7 C8 K, `$ b; z4 QTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。os.tvboxnow.com5 S$ d! }& C- I. W/ P G. z
But the outcome of civil resistance also depends on the precise methods used. Challenging the regime’s legitimacy and withholding skills and material resources from it are important, as is creating free spaces for dissent and maintaining the movement’s unity and clarity of purpose. Most importantly, as Nepstad has shown, a protest movement aimed at regime change needs to win over critical parts of the police and armed forces. ) `8 o7 K0 V. K8 x$ I' QTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 }9 ~& S; m( \
Conversely, a government that secures the unconditional loyalty of its troops will be able to crush even the most sustained popular protests. Yet it can do so only at the cost of much bloodshed, and a half-hearted or ineffectual crackdown makes the protesters’ triumph much more likely. 3 `4 s* D' o( ^1 Q1 H* G+ |- kos.tvboxnow.com . Q( D, K- {3 hGiven this, what are the prospects for Russia’s current protest movement? So far, it has gotten many things right. It has focused on a single demand: fair elections. It has united liberals, communists,nationalists, and otherwise apolitical citizens in a broad coalition, despite these groups’ mutual disdain and a colossal potential for rifts.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb9 y; `/ O, Z+ V# w
( p0 z! u3 ?6 i$ C4 D公仔箱論壇Like the 2000 Serbian uprising against Slobodan Milošević, the Russian movement has produced an astonishing upsurge in grassroots creativity and political wit. A good example is the recent “nano-protest” in the Siberian city of Barnaul, where police officers were forced to write up a report on a group of Lego figures brandishing slogans. These toy protests have now spread to other cities.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. o E! t2 R8 H( h
To circumvent biased reporting on state television and bridge the huge distances between Russian cities, the protesters have used decentralized means of communication such as social networks. High-speed Internet connections have penetrated remote corners of Russia in recent years, and blogging services such as LiveJournal have been prominent for a decade. Thus, the Internet plays a more important role than it did in Iran’s abortive Green Revolution or during the Arab Spring.公仔箱論壇 Y! e5 v/ q, z0 t0 T! k
2 Y# Y' q, T' |3 _/ ?$ y j) Mos.tvboxnow.comNonetheless, Russia’s size could become a liability for the protesters if things come to a head and,say, Putin refuses to accept a defeat in the March election. While there have been regular protests in cities from Stravropol in the south to Khabarovsk in the Far East, only Moscow and Saint Petersburg have seen true mass demonstrations. As in Serbiain 2000 or Ukraine in 2004, where demonstrations played out mainly in the capital cities, Russia’s metropolises have long been hotbeds of dissent. Unlike Serbia and Ukraine,however, provincial protesters would be unable to come to the rescue in case of a showdown. 9 M6 l4 b' {( Q1 gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 G1 O& r; y0 F6 A/ n
In the Philippines in 1986, Ferdinand Marcos’s tanks were stopped by nuns and small children. In the fall of 1989, East German soldiers joined their fellow citizens in the protests that brought down the Berlin Wall. But, during the same year in China,protesters in Beijing were crushed by troops from Inner Mongolia who didn’t understand Mandarin and had no sympathy for big-city dwellers.os.tvboxnow.com/ t9 X# y- A% G9 ~1 J
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While army units or riot squads (OMON) stationed in Moscow are too disgruntled by the recent police and military reforms to participate in a bloody clampdown, special-operations forces from the provinces, staffed with veterans of the Chechen war, might cherish the excitement of sticking it to the Moscow fat cats. Likewise, army officers from poorer regions are more grateful for the salary hike that Putin’s United Russia party announced, with much fanfare, shortly before the recent Duma election. 0 T- S+ y, ~7 [/ }3 T; i1 F! t8 ]- {" ]/ e8 d3 ~) y
But, while some parts of the security apparatus might support an initial crackdown, violent repression would be difficult to sustain. That means that Putin would be well advised to heed the protesters’ demands and call new and fair parliamentary elections. If he opts for violent confrontation, the short-term outcome will be decided by the loyalty of the armed forces. His long-term fate, however, would be much grimmer.os.tvboxnow.com5 _& j) l V3 g6 ? . p4 U. H. V* I, v公仔箱論壇0 Z1 H: t8 g& y" u" i
Mischa Gabowitsch is a research fellow at the Einstein Forumin Potsdam, Germany.
