* h, F/ x- @2 i3 W: g# ?, Stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb不論突尼斯和埃及是否最終會建成一個穩定、成熟的民主政體，但有一點可以確定，人們已經徹底唾棄了前體制，未來取決於歷史的機緣也取決於這些國家的人們和國際社會如何智慧地處理歷史遺留和面對新的挑戰。 9 v" ]1 K6 C+ _2 g& h3 ?' }# Y9 ` " p6 `: M$ @$ O, D8 M; s Btvb now,tvbnow,bttvb這些國家的巨變再次證明一個古今中外概莫例外的道理：人民其實是最希望穩定，從來都是官逼民反。統治者常常把消除社會不穩作為其政治的首要任務和維護其統治的口實，但恰恰是統治者才是社會不穩的根源。壓制的維穩只會造成的更大的不穩。 + {4 T0 D e# n9 x3 w + T, A; F- g( b- U中國的維穩與不穩 8 W2 i# E8 b/ ]+ J/ b9 J 9 w) }5 i8 a( L" N# ?tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb無須諱言，這些事變帶給中國的啟示應該是眾多的，這裏只講中國的維穩體制問題。「維穩」作為具有專門意含的詞匯是近幾年的事，但官方在中國社會和政治出現危機時就呼籲「維護社會穩定」的歷史卻由來已久，不過以往多半是短期的，一旦危機渡過，便放下話題不提。之所以今日「維穩」成為一種制度性的常用詞，維穩成為體制運作的常態，則從一個側面反映出中國的管治危機、政權的合法性危機的嚴重。 2 u! j5 A% Y1 J _公仔箱論壇os.tvboxnow.com3 y5 D% k. f( G' H% z- k8 i* ?2 h
一般來說，一個社會的制度本身應該是具有穩定性也能夠提供維護社會穩定的功能的，但一個制度以相當大的資源和人力來從事所謂的維穩工作本身證明，這個制度已經失去正常的應該具有的保證社會穩定的功效。說到底，中國現存的維權體制不外乎是建諸於在兩種思路和兩種手段之上，就是「撒錢」和「嚴打」；「人民內部問題人民幣解決」，「人民內部問題按對敵方式解決」，「胡蘿蔔與大棒」並行，同時靠經濟增長釋放新的機會和資源來吸納一部分矛盾，並輔助以一些重大事件如奧運等進行社會動員，轉移、稀釋、平抑某些社會不滿。 # l0 c' n0 N: b! B, b$ S9 A* Mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ) |* z: @7 X% U! `* x G公仔箱論壇這種體制和手段在過去些年是有其效果的，也是造成中國現狀能維繫到今天的原因。但最近幾年急劇增加的社會衝突，包括官方不斷升到升高的維穩呼籲本身都透入一個信息，這樣一個維穩體制已經快走到盡頭。 ; u: }1 ]% X" w; Z y+ t+ [" dTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* Z% M a" P" S8 u 惡性循環os.tvboxnow.com/ p, t, p+ }2 `( e
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且不說不斷快速增長的幾與軍費相當的5000多億的巨額維穩經費不可能長久持續，而最糟糕的是這種維穩體制本身造成的不穩因素正在超出其能夠平抑的不穩因素。一方面，是中央需要的穩定，「零指標」「一票決」定官員命運；另一方面，是缺乏制度約束下的地方利益擴張以及社會矛盾解決機制缺失下的維穩剛性需求，賣地成為一個必然的捷徑：09年是1，6 萬億，增60%,去年2，7萬億，增70% 。 + E* z9 O% h/ g 7 n2 c) |" i1 J可以想見，這背後又可能造成了多少強制拆遷冤案。許多專家提到的其中大量資金去向不明，但我們也可以肯定有相當部分用於維穩。從中央到地方，近年各級維穩經費幾乎都在以雙位數在增長。而一些得到維穩好處、靠維穩吃飯的官員警力甚至黑惡勢力自然也都樂見這樣一個局面持續，而有意無意造成各種需要維穩現象不穩定現象。一個惡性循環已經形成。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' h- Q9 W% O* G! x
6 v2 }' g6 z6 t* s! G, m短線維穩與長治久安tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: e( @# G1 \. n& `) h
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現代社會的利益多元和現代文明的變動不居的等特徵都需要一種能回應人們利益多元表達、具有不斷更新調整機制的制度。這種短線的維穩只可維繫暫時的虛假升平，但終為飲鳩止渴，非長治久安之道。一旦中國的經濟因各種原因放緩，或因生態、社會等事件誘發，長期靠得過且過的這種維穩體制壓抑的矛盾會像岩漿般噴發，這對國人，對國家的命運甚至對統治集團本身都不是件好事。不堪回首，小樓昨夜月明中，逃往沙特的本·阿里今日豈不要悔之晚矣？平日高唱和諧，踐踏民眾，貪圖權柄想萬世一系，民眾抗議大潮湧起才想起改革，更換政府懲治腐敗，人民又豈可甘受戲弄？今日如此，何必當初！公仔箱論壇4 m& o7 U! N0 `, Q- I- j
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在突尼斯和埃及的衝擊下，從阿爾及利亞到也門、敘利亞到處阿拉伯領導人在忙著更換政府，回應社會壓力，稱「可轉圜的時間不多了」。 ( r E* F \) J- qTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。os.tvboxnow.com0 B( [8 Q% T! d
而中國呢？歷史會給中國多少時間？在這新春之際，我們還是要以最深的誠意，祝願阿拉伯世界的人民能夠終獲自由和尊嚴，少受損失，和平轉型；更祝福我們的人民和國家能真正享有夢寐以求的自由富裕和長治久安。作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-2-4 06:57 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-4 07:01 AM 編輯 ( E' Q/ q" n; }9 l
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Watching Thugs With Razors and Clubs at Tahrir Sq. 8 ?4 L$ r3 R( X; ]; i, t公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇0 p! \" k, q4 N) _3 @& }! |
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF February 2, 2011tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# S: F3 f1 [% }' M x/ R6 d
0 d8 B. W# m' e; Y7 v7 {3 Tos.tvboxnow.com * c& o& F4 ^) {1 }/ v( ^9 a公仔箱論壇Pro-government thugs at Tahrir Square used clubs, machetes, swords and straight razors on Wednesday to try to crush Egypt’s democracy movement, but, for me, the most memorable moment of a sickening day was one of inspiration: watching two women stand up to a mob. : N) W/ N0 |7 N, h+ Dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbI was on Tahrir Square,watching armed young men pour in to scream in support of President Hosni Mubarak and to battle the pro-democracy protesters. Everybody, me included,tried to give them a wide berth, and the bodies of the injured being carried away added to the tension. Then along came two middle-age sisters, Amal and Minna, walking toward the square to join the pro-democracy movement. They had their heads covered in the conservative Muslim style, and they looked timid and frail as thugs surrounded them, jostled them, shouted at them. * i4 y# g7 f) ]& H6 B
Yet side by side with the ugliest of humanity, you find the best. The two sisters stood their ground. They explained calmly to the mob why they favored democratic reform and listened patiently to the screams of the pro-Mubarak mob.When the women refused to be cowed, the men lost interest and began to move on— and the two women continued to walk to the center of Tahrir Square. 8 s1 ?$ @* ?+ N( T: H! m公仔箱論壇I approached the women and told them I was awed by their courage. I jotted down their names and asked why they had risked the mob’s wrath to come to Tahrir Square. “We need democracy in Egypt,”Amal told me, looking quite composed. “We just want what you have.” 9 S U; j" l# L: WTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。But when I tried to interview them on video, thugs swarmed us again. I appeased the members of the mob by interviewing them (as one polished his razor), and the two sisters managed again to slip away and continue toward the center of Tahrir Square, also known as Liberation Square, to do their part for Egyptian democracy. . [6 D# ?- k5 i# K- [TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Thuggery and courage coexisted all day in Tahrir Square, just like that. The events were sometimes presented by the news media as “clashes” between rival factions, but that’s a bit misleading. This was an organized government crackdown, but it relied on armed hoodlums, not on police or army troops. - F% z& U* s( _- u( N
The pro-Mubarak forces arrived in busloads that mysteriously were waved past checkpoints. These forces emerged at the same time in both Alexandria and Cairo, and they seemed to have been briefed to carry the same kinds of signs and scream the same slogans. They singled out foreign journalists, especially camera crews, presumably because they didn’t want their brutality covered. A number of journalists were beaten up, although far and away it was Egyptians who suffered the most. + w" i g& z: \, z( hUntil the arrival of these thugs, Tahrir Square had been remarkably peaceful, partly because pro-democracy volunteers checked I.D.’s and frisked everyone entering. One man, a suspected police infiltrator,was caught with a gun on Tuesday quite close to me, and I was impressed with the way volunteers disarmed him and dragged him to an army unit — all while forming a protective cordon around him to keep him from being harmed. . l% s+ P6 Z) e$ e1 d" p公仔箱論壇In contrast, the pro-Mubarak mobs were picking fights. At first, the army kept them away from the pro-democracy crowds, but then the pro-Mubarak thugs charged into the square and began attacking. * y; R) j, W; C; y5 N% W公仔箱論壇There is no reliable way of knowing right now how many have been killed and injured in Egypt’s turmoil. Before Wednesday’s violence, Navi Pillay, the United Nations high commissioner for human rights, said the death toll could be as many as 300, but she acknowledged that she was basing that on “unconfirmed” reports. There are some who are missing, including a senior Google official, Wael Ghonim, who supported the democracy activists. On Wednesday, the government said that three more had died and many hundreds were injured; I saw some people who were unmoving and looked severely injured at the least. These figures compare with perhaps more than 100 killed when Iran crushed its pro-democracy movement in 2009 and perhaps 400 to 800 killed in Beijing in 1989. 8 L6 @* n N! N" f& S" Otvb now,tvbnow,bttvbChinese and Iranian leaders were widely condemned for those atrocities, so shouldn’t Mr. Mubarak merit the same broad condemnation? Come on, President Obama. You owe the democracy protesters being attacked here, and our own history and values, a much more forceful statement deploring this crackdown. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 O- X: t2 {) f) {
It should be increasingly evident that Mr. Mubarak is not the remedy for the instability in Egypt;he is its cause. The road to stability in Egypt requires Mr. Mubarak’s departure, immediately. * ]# V$ q4 ^0 G; w3 QTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。But for me, when I remember this sickening and bloody day, I’ll conjure not only the brutality that Mr. Mubarak seems to have sponsored but also the courage and grace of those Egyptians who risked their lives as they sought to reclaim their country. And incredibly, the democracy protesters held their ground all day at Tahrir Square despite this armed onslaught. Above all, I’ll be inspired by those two sisters standing up to Mr. Mubarak’s hoodlums. If they, armed only with their principles, can stand up to Mr. Mubarak’s thuggery, can’t we all do the same?
