標題: What champions are made of [打印本頁] 作者: cfloo 時間: 2009-2-14 10:43 PM 標題: What champions are made of
Ifyou don't like stats that aren't in synch with your "happy clappy"existence, might crack your rose tinted specs or may simply cause youto stick your head back in the sand where it probably belongs then Isuggest you stop reading right about now.............
If you canhandle a more earnest analysis of previous Champions and how it impactson and compares with our situation, what is needed etc then read on
I'vecompiled the stats for all the Premiership Champions' seasons since itwas reduced back to 20 teams to compare with our own records and a fewof our better seasons. It makes for interesting comparison, shows wherewe drop points and shows an unfortunate statistic.
Unfortunate Statistic - Results vs Champions
Since 1995/96 the teams most beaten by the eventual Premiership Champions are :
Nottoo good for the city of Liverpool, and it's not as if we can blame ourneighbours since we're a bit but not that much better - just three winsin that time between us, albeit all of them by us and two in one seasonI'm sure most could bring to mind. I checked back and the bitters havebeaten the Premiership Champions only once ever, and that was way backin 1992/93. Our own record against the Champions is poor, to be havelost 5/8 of all our Premiership games against them.
While wehave been ever present in the Premiership, there are five teams(including us) who've played 26 games against the Champions in thattime period and we've the second worst record - worse than Tottenham,NEWCASTLE and Aston Villa. Percentage wise we're probably not so bad,but it's still not good that we lose to the Champions that often.Obviously Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal haven't played the Champions thefull 26 games since they were Champions themselves so only played theChampions when they themselves weren't Champions.
The Sides We Should Beat
This is another area we lack in, particularly against promoted sides and those that end up relegated
RECORD vs PROMOTED & RELEGATED SIDES (95/96-07/08)
Champions vs Promoted Sides : P76 W58 D14 L4 PTS 188 (Won 76.32%)
Liverpool vs Promoted Sides : P76 W48 D17 L11 PTS PTS 161 (Won 63.16%)
Champions vs Relegated Sides : P78 W64 D13 L1 PTS 205 (Won 82.05%)
Liverpool vs Relegated Sides : P78 W53 D18 L7 PTS 177 (Won 67.95%)
Perhaps most worryingly against sides coming up and going straight back down again :
Champions : P38 W34 D3 L1 PTS 105 (Won 89.47%)
Liverpool : P38 W24 D10 L4 PTS 82 (Won 63.16%)
Itworks our as a season's worth of games and we'd only equal ourPremiership best even though all the sides we would have played (intheory) would be newly promoted relegation fodder. The Championscollectively put in a record high, 10 points more than Chelsea's 95points record from 04/05.
And the statistic which I put thistogether for, the one that may show how this season will pan out. Theone that looks at the starts of Champions, where they are after 24games and how they finish off seasons.
What Champions Are Made Of
POINTS AFTER 24 GAMES
05/06 Chelsea 63 points
04/05 Chelsea 61 points
03/04 Arsenal 58 points
07/08 Man Utd 57 points
00/01 Man Utd 56 points
08/09 Man Utd 56 points
99/00 Man Utd 53 points
08/09 LIVERPOOL 51 points
Our24 game start would best six starts by Champions since 95/96, but nonesince 02/03 (47 points). But maybe the key question is how do Championsfinish their seasons. Simple answer is ahead of us, but in terms ofpoints...............
CHAMPIONS RUN-INS - LAST 14 GAMES (95/96-07/08)
01/02 Arsenal 40 points
99/00 Man Utd 38 points
95/96 Man Utd 37 points
02/03 Man Utd 36 points
97/98 Arsenal 34 points
04/05 Chelsea 34 points
98/99 Man Utd 32 points
03/04 Arsenal 32 points
06/07 Man Utd 32 points
07/08 Man Utd 30 points
96/97 Man Utd 28 points
05/06 Chelsea 28 points
00/01 Man Utd 24 points
Lastseason we managed 33 points in our last 14 games, our best since1995/96 is 37 points in 01/02 and (unsurprisingly) 05/06 when wereached 82 points. We only have 13 games left, if Man Utd pick up 30points again then we'd need 33 points from 13 games and that would takesome doing - especially with a trip to Old Trafford coming up. We coulddo with them picking up less than 30 points, not likely given theircurrent run. The last five season average is 31.2, so that doesn'toffer any great hope either.
I seem to recall therebeing two myths floating around about second halves of seasons - thatwe have a stronger/better second half and that we finish better thanother teams.
Well only once since 95/96 have we scored morepoints in the second half of the season than the eventual champions -our excellent finish to 05/06. As for us having stronger/better secondhalves of the season than first :-
1992/93-2007/08
Liverpool - more points 1st half of season : 7
Liverpool - more points 2nd half of season : 6
Liverpool - equal points in both halves : 3
Liverpool : 1st half of season average : 33.88 points
Liverpool : 2nd half of season average : 33.31 points
Liverpoolpicked up 38 points first half of the season in 96/97 and only 30second half, that's why the average points tips towards the first half.It certainly dispels the "excellent run-in" myth, although in the pastthree seasons we have picked up an average of 38 points in the secondhalf of the season compared to 32 in the previous 13 seasons - notsaying much though is it, considering what went before was pretty poorfare, and our first half average is up from 33 in the previous 13seasons to 38.5 in the last four including this. Those reckoning thatmeans something should take into account that what went before was attimes truly rubbish and a 5-6 point swing over 19 games is neither thatawesome and merely reflects how bad we were before as much as itreflects how good we are now.
