$ w# T* j) ]5 e: X W. M鄧小平當日之言「中國要出問題,還是出在黨內」,至今仍然貼切。今時今日,習近平被視為繼鄧小平之後權勢最盛的中國領導人,但薄熙來乃至周永康兩案顯示,黨內鬥爭仍無日無之;周永康受查一事遲遲未正式公佈,北京政界流傳著黨內大老出面阻撓習近平的傳言。隨著習近平繼續反腐,他在高層內的敵人會越來越多;而改革經濟需要實施的政策,也會引起民眾不滿。為八九示威者所不齒的貪腐,今日變本加厲;而隨著中國經濟發展,群體性事件亦越發頻繁。 & e# S. g2 P( I: Qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ) s; d; e1 t( C7 g* O25年前的六月四日清晨,為另一家傳媒當記者麥傑斯亦身在現場,看著鎮壓過後火起處處的長安大街,質疑中共還能否走上正途;而當年的《經濟學人》則形容中國「已在政變、反政變與內戰的邊緣」。25年過去,末日預言沒有實現,中共並未倒台;但今日中國面對的政治、經濟乃至國際問題越來越嚴峻,中共若要撐過接下來的25年,則是未知之數。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ | ~! Z ]6 T- S- }) }* P+ H/ _
8 q; p t! ^: W, _9 ?tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- i# A1 {1 T2 H5 H3 h8 o& U+ ~$ p 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-5-31 11:50 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-5-31 11:58 AM 編輯 2 v1 q1 W6 H d! k- Itvb now,tvbnow,bttvb $ w/ y0 l+ m Z8 s, QRemembering Tiananmen" x' [+ p Q0 `3 F The lessons of history 9 N! `. @; L8 W3 aTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. _* S6 @, _/ K$ b) S0 L( P7 X* F
James Miles% Q$ x" ^5 I. v9 G j tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, C5 o& S ~0 U9 Y; ], X
As our bureau chief leaves China, he reflects on the crushing of the protests he witnessed 25 years ago, and what has transpired since & e5 I2 j: A, m+ u( l! ~9 c1 Ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 M0 w& r% R6 G& ^8 V TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! R, {2 W2 [+ c- f0 B
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EVEN after the Chinese army moved into Tiananmen Square on the night of June 3rd 1989, and cleared it of the detritus left by the students who had occupied it for most of the previous seven weeks,it was several days before observers were certain who was in control of China.Your correspondent, looking down Beijing’s central boulevard, Chang’an Avenue,at a maze of still-burning barricades a day after the bloody operation, was not alone in wondering whether the Communist Party could ever heal. This newspaper,with which he was not then linked, summed up a common view: “This week China looked into the abyss of coup, counter-coup and civil war”. Foreign doomsayers were proved wrong. But even after 25 years of relative stability, it is still wise to be cautious about the cohesion of Chinese politics./ }# ~6 S+ U2 }/ O9 ~$ Q) h
3 e! t% l5 J G9 H公仔箱論壇It was not just foreign observers who were given to apocalyptic musings at the time. “If the rebels had had their way,there would have been a civil war,” Deng Xiaoping told a visiting Chinese-American physicist, Tsung-Dao Lee, three months after the army crackdown that left hundreds, if not thousands, dead. Thanks to strenuous efforts by the Communist Party to erase memories of what happened (see article), many in China now have only a dim understanding of the history of the protests in Tiananmen Square and the nationwide unrest they triggered. But Deng’s analysis is remarkably close to the mainstream among the generation of young urban residents who have grown up since: if they have heard of the 1989 protests, many feel that, though the killings may have been bad,the army’s resolute action helped to create the stability that allowed China’s economy to grow from one that was then smaller than Britain’s into the world’s second-largest.! U9 v" M/ w8 |: U0 u5 e! W
5 {6 l3 Q4 Z4 Y& W; Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThis argument, however, glosses over the factional infighting within the party that paralysed decision-making and allowed the protests to grow to the scale they did. Even after Tiananmen, Deng appeared to recognise that political stability was by no means assured. By1992, then retired, he had concluded that the collapse of the Soviet Union and its allies was mainly attributable to their failure to make citizens richer. To avoid a similar fate for China, he went on his famous “southern tour” to drum up support for a fresh round of economic reform. It was this bold move, in the face of stiff conservative resistance, rather than the crushing of largely peaceful dissent, that laid the groundwork for China’s prosperity today. As he tottered round southern China, berating conservatives and calling for the liberation of China’s economy from ideological shackles, he remarked: “If any problem occurs in China, it will arise from within the party.” His words remain apt. Q/ Y% C/ q8 R& ]2 `: ~0 L' Dos.tvboxnow.com公仔箱論壇, j q, l) N& o1 L' @: h
Not since the collapse of the Qing dynasty in1911 has China enjoyed such a prolonged period of stability as it has between Tiananmen and today (barring a handful of high-level purges and numerous street protests, most of them isolated and triggered by local grievances). Yet political risk is as important to bear in mind as the wobbles that are causing growing numbers of observers to worry about China’s economy. Neither kind of risk is grounds for immediate alarm. The government appears sufficiently in control of the economy’s levers (not least through ownership of the main commercial banks)and has sufficient assets at its disposal to prevent a sharp slowdown, at least for another few years. But one important lesson of Tiananmen is that politics in China has a capacity to surprise. Your correspondent recalls respected analysts in the months before June 1989 pooh-poohing rumours of a serious rift within the leadership.# ~ d& D# Z% R7 d
Xi’s got the power 1 r8 ~7 ]( Y; Z2 `TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ' O+ ]% F" k+ H4 uThere are few such rumours today. Mr Xi is often described as the strongest leader in China since Deng, and he has been moving fast to consolidate his power (he has set up powerful new organs to oversee national security and economic reform, and has taken personal command of them). But there have been hints, both before and since the handover of power to Mr Xi in 2012, that politics at the top remains prone to strife. Eight months before Mr Xi took over, a fellow member of the ruling Politburo, Bo Xilai, was purged; ostensibly for corruption and abuse of power but also, many observers believe, because he threatened Mr Xi’s future grip on power. The mopping up continues. Mr Xi is now trying to eradicate the influence of Mr Bo’s powerful patron, Zhou Yongkang, who was the country’s security chief until here tired in 2012. Mr Zhou is being secretly investigated for corruption, the highest-ranking leader to be targeted on such grounds since the party took power in 1949. Rumours abound in Beijing that Mr Xi is encountering resistance from other retired elders who fear that he is rocking the boat.公仔箱論壇8 X y& f6 g' }/ L, R2 I
! h4 s- r' g( q( G% {os.tvboxnow.comIt is extremely difficult to gauge the level of political stress that these developments are causing. Official statistics can be vague and misleading, but there is no concerted effort, as there is in politics, to keep the outside world in ignorance of pertinent facts. Contacts between Chinese leaders and foreign journalists were very limited before Tiananmen. They were curtailed even further after it. Not since November 1987has a general secretary of the party given the foreign press corps an unfettered opportunity to ask questions about his policies. Your correspondent vividly recalls the exhilaration of that occasion in the Great Hall of the People, when the newly appointed party chief, Zhao Ziyang, raised glasses with foreign journalists and fielded impromptu questions in an unprecedented display of openness. It would have been wrong to read too much into it, however. Zhaosaid that those who believed conservatives and reformers were at loggerheads would “make one mistake after another” in their analysis. He himself was purged by the conservatives during the Tiananmen upheaval and spent the rest of his life under house arrest.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 L4 t) \+ ^. c- H4 c
! C& ~2 D0 m: R4 htvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTussling with tigersos.tvboxnow.com# ]" o% p! z0 h6 f9 Y e$ \! K
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 ^% N. u; Q( s5 E
Mr Xi admits that economic reforms have entered “deep water”. As he put it on a trip to Europe last month: “We must get ready to go into the mountains, being fully aware that there may be tigers to encounter.” These tigers could include others at the top. Perhaps to avoid a Zhao-like fate (Zhao was the last party chief to put political reform high on his agenda), Mr Xi has begun his leadership with two parallel crackdowns, one on corruption and the other on political dissent. Part of his strategy, many believe, is to scare corrupt officials into compliance with his reforms while preventing dissidents from fanning the flames of discontent in a society that has undergone profound and wrenching change over the past decade alongside broad economic growth (see chart). ' n+ g" X3 s$ stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇- m5 ?4 k2 Q8 L) R* m9 Z: B * [6 X D5 b# q5 e0 u
Mr Xi has three new social forces to contend with that grew to critical mass under his predecessor: a huge middle class, an equally large underclass of rural migrants, and online social media that have enabled discontents to connect and communicate with remarkable ease, in spite of vigorous censorship. He can probably prevent street demonstrations from coalescing into anything like the1989 unrest. Even if the economy were to slow sharply, a couple of years of stagnation might not pose a great threat to social stability. * a3 \1 u6 a( G0 D. M8 k: oTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb e3 Q3 q! ?# |8 [9 R9 u4 c
After all, China has experienced slumps before. Tens of millions lost their jobs in the late 1990s as the regime closed down loss-making state-owned enterprises. Protests did erupt, but most were small. After the global financial crisis in 2008, millions of migrant workers were laid off from export industries. Most, however, had ties to plots in the countryside to which they returned for a few months before finding new work when manufacturing picked up. Despite the current slowdown, employment is holding up well. If the economy were to slow more dramatically, many migrant workers could again melt back into the villages.% [- I9 P3 Y1 X& O
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There are also reasons to worry about external dangers as China flexes its muscles to assert territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. Mr Xi appears to have abandoned Deng’s post-Tiananmen dictum that China should “hide its capacities and bide its time”. His latest territory-marking manoeuvre was the installation of an oil rig earlier this month in waters claimed by Vietnam. This triggered bloody anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam, but Mr Xi appears unconcerned by the risks. His moves seem calculated to avoid direct military conflict, but if a clash were to occur he might stand to gain politically at home. After Tiananmen the party launched a campaign to boost “patriotic education” among students. The aim was to portray the party as the embodiment of Chinese nationalism. It appears to have rubbed off. Young Chinese especially applaud Mr Xi’s more robust stance towards Japan, a country they are taught to abhor. ) ]2 J8 F' J. eos.tvboxnow.com 5 d1 a+ L9 ?2 s; i, I' Z) z8 TTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Elite politics, however, is more of a wildcard. The Bo affair in 2012, which only came to light thanks to the extraordinary flight of his police chief to an American consulate in the south-western city of Chengdu, was a sharp reminder of how erratic it can be. Both Mr Bo’s case and that of his mentor, Mr Zhou, have exposed the power and wealth of family networks within the leadership and their extensive influence in business. It will take all Mr Xi’s strength to keep high-level corruption in check. The protesters in 1989 were enraged by it even then; they would be astonished today. In a case that came to light in the Chinese press this month,an official was found to have 100m yuan ($16m) in banknotes stashed at his home.7 p6 S- E) B' U( Q
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) J7 Q- e& v4 M' C* ^; q
Mr Xi’s sweeping campaign against corruption,the toughest in China in many years, will make him powerful enemies. So too will his efforts to expose big state-owned enterprises to greater competition and rein in profligate local governments. He has called for “decisive results”by 2020 in his drive for economic reform. Yet this will require measures that could make him unpopular with the public, such as the implementation of a property tax that will infuriate the better off. After Mr Bo’s arrest, rumours circulated on Chinese social media of an attempted coup by Mr Zhou. The reports proved fanciful, but they suggested that some Chinese at least are prepared to imagine extreme scenarios. ! {6 q" h4 [: B7 t! Z5 L% f5 _1 ?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 + Y6 j, b+ N% MYour correspondent leaves China believing that the party has a good chance of maintaining its grip on power during Mr Xi’s remaining eight years at the top. But the risks—political, economic and international—are growing. The party has proved unexpectedly adept at tackling a series of crises since 1989. But it will need to be even more agile if it is to remain in power for another 25 years. 5 g: w. \6 b( h3 E4 `os.tvboxnow.com & O$ v3 @+ w# |4 }" vTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ) g! [$ K$ w9 p作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-5-31 12:07 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-5-31 12:09 PM 編輯 0 q1 B" Q0 K Y8 A5 F/ @0 [1 x4 s
" h: z6 J F" o; bos.tvboxnow.com廿五年前今日:柴玲宣布表決 續留守天安門廣場 $ U, v. o( l4 Z' G& S7 pos.tvboxnow.com2014-5-26 7 ^' b m5 ^0 E6 ^TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 4 ]- E' L& u5 r! G1 Q" }os.tvboxnow.com . w- n6 v, F8 O0 b$ P公仔箱論壇: I8 j! D* y, U) V. o6 U$ h
柴玲、吾爾開希、王丹。 圖:64memo.comTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 r/ \9 F7 K5 z5 y
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25年前的今日,1989年5月26日,北京戒嚴第七日。經過多番激烈討論後,保衛天安門廣場指揮部總指揮柴玲宣布,表決通過堅守廣場,指揮部等人職務不變。指揮部同時決定,計劃採取更激烈手段向政府施壓,具體行動則有待商討。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 c) U: X1 q1 P' ?% Z+ g3 w
- }/ g3 p+ E0 a# Z& Y香港方面,20萬青年冒雨參加由突破機構及香港基督徒學生福音團契合辦的「中港青年一條心」全港青年大集會,聲援北京學運。參加者在集會揮動手上的電筒,唱出《龍的傳人》等歌曲,又高叫口號,要求大陸實現民主法治。黃大仙近萬居民在摩士公園集會,要求北京當局公正處理學運。廣東省人大港區代表聯署發表緊急呼籲,促請中央妥善處理學運。公仔箱論壇3 c; t( Q3 Z0 b8 Q
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中共高層繼續進行整肅總書記趙紫陽的工作。有關趙紫陽被整肅的文件下達至司局一級幹部。中央政治局常委、國務院副總理姚依林向國務院各部委負責人,傳達了關於趙紫陽問題及中央的處理意見。中共中央直屬機關工作委員會、中共中央國家機關工作委員會也於當日分別發出緊急通知,要求堅決貫徹中共中央和國務院關於迅速結束動亂的指示。 # l' I* @9 Z5 NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ( K7 M. r' r6 z: ^5 ~" n* _
26日的長安街未有出現大型遊行示威,是戒嚴令以來最為平靜的一日,天安門廣場靜坐的學生明顯減少,主要剩下由外地而來的學生。學者王軍濤、包遵信、學生領袖王丹等40多人,在中國社會科學院經濟所禮堂召開會議,形成四條決議:(1)要求李鵬下台;(2)軍隊撤離;(3)天安門靜坐堅持下去;(4)組織動員工人罷工。 2 }! r# e. Z) u( u$ a; ?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# l, Q2 b- S- i* E) I- T3 y
廿五年前今日:劉曉波等四君子絕食tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 v0 x$ S T/ e! W
2014-6-2TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; n1 b. s+ u; K, j
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# D, h# G1 @9 T% C/ q+ S25年前的今日,1989年6月2日,北京戒嚴第十四日。台灣歌手侯德健、北師大講師劉曉波、原北大講師周舵、《北師大周報》前主編高新,4人下午在天安門廣場召開記者會,宣布絕食3天,抗議戒嚴令。4人同時發表《6.2絕食宣言》,呼籲學生和政府雙方重新以和平方式談判,以協商對話方式解決對立。他們在搭建的綠色帳篷亦掛上「我們絕食!我們抗議!我們呼籲!我們懺悔!」的標語。絕食消息傳出後,20多萬人湧往天安門廣場圍觀。公仔箱論壇. B/ }; e3 k0 R% a$ i" s+ m) \9 e
7 A0 l. m* H/ Y: ]9 ]香港方面,6間大專院校教職員和文化界人士,組成「專上院校教職員關注中國國是聯絡小組」,聲援國內知識分子。另有一群中學生在維園發起集會,但因宣傳不足,只有數人參與。支聯會代表李卓人亦抵達北京,送交港人捐款支持學運。公仔箱論壇) l. t: v" L% d. c% C. C
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 H, y! \* q$ ?) h2 v( U 無牌吉普車撞死3人 車內發現武警物資os.tvboxnow.com' h W. k, N, `$ o
3 |" h" u5 R$ U4 j; w; qTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。晚上,一輛無牌三菱吉普車在復興門外大街飛馳,由於路面濕滑,吉普車失控撞倒一輛三輪車後衝上行人路,造成3名行人死亡、1人受傷。數千市民圍觀事件,並從肇事車內發現武警服裝、警棍、刀等物件,均痛罵武警開快車。但在車禍發生後,多輛吉普車繼續高速駛過,並有數輛載滿戒嚴部隊的軍車尾隨。 ; o/ j0 u6 C, v) r. f& nos.tvboxnow.com - j- s1 L6 @2 Z% h" o; U' b. rTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。軍隊繼續秘密進城,天安門廣場在晚上出現大批便裝軍警,又有士兵在廣場附近操練,氣氛不尋常。早在當日下午,國家主席楊尚昆主持召開中央軍委組成人員和戒嚴部隊指揮部負責人會議,根據中央軍委主席鄧小平等中共元老的決定,命令一部分尚在北京郊外的戒嚴部隊,於6月3日0時進入北京市區,向警戒目標開進。 $ N+ @8 o8 F3 I( Y2 K TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- u. `% w: H3 Z" ^ ]
新華社當日發出中共北京市委宣傳部撰寫的《認清動亂的實質和戒嚴的必要性》文章,表示極少數人製造動亂是早有預謀,目的是否定共產黨的領導、否定社會主義制度。極少數人製造這場動亂是周密策劃的,並有國內各種政治勢力插手。 1 q* ^! h. r) K! F公仔箱論壇 9 K6 Y5 z t R# RTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。由於當局鼓動保守勢力上街支持戒嚴,數千名北京大學及北京農業大學學生發起遊行,諷刺政府行為。他們騎着單車,高舉標語,寫着「挑撥工人農民鬥學生是個好辦法」、「擁護李鵬,給錢十元」及「反對民主,反對自由」等冷嘲熱諷的字句。作者: 杨振峰 時間: 2014-6-3 11:16 PM