. Z) f. b. j, k! @tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb首先，國界的爭議，就幾乎不可能解決。烏克蘭不是聯邦制國家，除了克里米亞自治共和國擁有清晰的自治範疇、權限，「東烏」、「西烏」都只是約定俗成叫法。雖然西烏克蘭不少領土是在斯大林時代兼併所得，然而若要具體劃界，哪裏是親俄文化圈的「東部」，哪裏是親西方文化圈的「西部」，並沒有完全客觀的中線劃分。公仔箱論壇. k# y) D t% J$ _
5 L: w2 W( ?$ u r, KTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- [, g" }" i. b D9 s0 { 邊界難分 易惹糾紛TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 D+ V+ z1 P* N; I$ I0 l0 t) A! S
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要是烏克蘭24個州、兩個直轄市都要公投歸入「東烏」或「西烏」，州以下的單位有不同意見，也可以再搞公投。要是「西烏」成立民兵，佔領半壁江山，再在控制範圍內一次過表決獨立，那就是曠日持久的全方位內戰。當歐盟和俄羅斯都已成為既得利益者，也不存在有份量的其他調解人，屆時局勢不一定像敍利亞慘烈，卻恐怕連南北塞浦路斯分治的相對和平也做不到。, f. k1 I3 U; y3 R+ ]
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-2-23 10:35 AM 編輯 os.tvboxnow.com: x: o$ s) r6 b! R: L: Z
* ]1 _5 g3 Q$ z! @Carl Bildt: Europe’s Crisis in Ukraine / q. r4 W' C2 b) oTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。os.tvboxnow.com0 y: i! d5 h, H6 m! o/ T: Q
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STOCKHOLM – How Ukraine’s profound crisis will end is impossible to predict. We in the European Union and the United States are doing what we can to secure a peaceful transition to a more stable democracy, and the implementation, at long last, of urgently needed reforms. And the agreement now concluded between President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition should create a new possibility for this.公仔箱論壇2 X- Z1 p/ f' b6 G4 g1 c' M( w
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If the agreement is not honored, Ukraine could well continue its descent into chaos and conflict, which would be in no one’s interest. That is why Ukraine’s crisis is a European crisis. And, though we cannot know how the crisis will end, we should be very clear about how it started. ( n3 P3 k, g( G! Y- k4 cos.tvboxnow.com 7 a3 w3 `& H0 k) q1 c . _( i# c& \; Q7 ~' X" t# v公仔箱論壇For years, Ukraine sought a closer relationship with the EU. Its leaders warmly endorsed the promise of enhanced ties under the EU’s Eastern Partnership, and pushed for an EU Association Agreement, together with a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. When those talks,which began under the previous Ukrainian government, were concluded, the agreement was endorsed by all four presidents and all 14 prime ministers to hold office since Ukraine achieved independence in 1991. + n7 |) C5 m, S7 z公仔箱論壇 ! ?3 v) `# a$ l$ S3 b7 r& C5 ^, b1 Z
But, as the EU and Ukraine were addressing remaining issues ahead of the November 2013 Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, where Ukraine was to sign its Association Agreement, something suddenly changed. From August onward, Russian policymakers embraced the openly declared aim of knocking Ukraine off the course that it had chosen. A political campaign against the agreement was launched, and the Kremlin mixed targeted sanctions with threats of harsher measures against the already-weak Ukrainian economy. 6 ~4 P4 ~* ^) \! E6 D, V6 _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 - }0 I7 T6 f4 V4 W. X: _9 Ros.tvboxnow.com 3 m; O) d- S- k4 e/ a( A6 NRussian leaders publicly stated that if Ukraine signed a free-trade agreement with the EU, it would lose its free-trade deal with Russia, and high tariffs would be imposed on all goods and services. Severe economic pressure, it was made clear, would become open economic warfare. 6 z2 b# a F5 N5 `TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 5 n$ ~+ A9 @. M7 t/ \Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich gave way. In explaining to EU leaders that he was not ready to sign the Association Agreement, he was very clear that Russian pressure was responsible for his decision. & o" d! T$ ]* z: p6 W0 Bos.tvboxnow.comtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 r/ X( _# {8 Z' R' e
" x$ H% u) n/ |) iThis set in motion the chain of events that has now resulted in carnage and death in the streets of Kyiv. For many Ukrainians,Europe was the symbol of hope of a better life; suddenly, they felt betrayed by a political elite that they had long perceived as being incorrigibly corrupt.So, to be clear, it was the Kremlin’s pressure, and the Yanukovich administration’s vacillation, that produced the current crisis. 6 J. E/ ~" n3 k! e8 Y公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& F- F1 `/ V- h$ X# q; h) h& Z
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Had Yanukovich decided to stand up to Russian pressure,there is no doubt that Ukraine would have faced difficulties. But, with an EU Association Agreement and the possibility of solid financial aid and reform assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the Russian measures would not have been sustainable. ~3 w: b! [9 lTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' z4 ~8 b# c0 ^1 Y) _+ q
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Of course, the reforms asked of Ukraine would have been difficult, but no more difficult than what had been asked of other ex-communist countries that saw their future in and with Europe. There would have been light at the end of the tunnel, and, as Ukraine embraced the reform process, it would have been seen as a determined and democratic European country. : ^- P2 _1 R5 I" `" k" k" F: S- H; Cos.tvboxnow.com$ l: F" F9 I9 F9 ^/ \9 o; J
( Q# h' |9 d* T& d/ P$ |tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbInstead, Yanukovich opted for a short-term strategy narrowly focused on his own political survival – a strategy that the protesters increasingly came to view as a game of deceit and betrayal. As the regime started to use violence to repress its opponents, violent opposition groups gained credibility.公仔箱論壇) |; Q. W2 S }
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Free trade with both Russia and the EU would obviously havebeen good for Ukraine’s economy, thus providing a boost to the Russian economy as well, notwithstanding the oft-used but fundamentally bogus argument that EU goods would flow into Russia via Ukraine. (Has anyone heard Americans complaining that the free-trade agreement between Mexico and the EU is undermining the US economy?) ( p3 k8 J9 K& Y( t8 x/ ~tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ S$ T; M1 I' _! e, X0 x: W8 q( D
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Russia is intent on building a new strategic bastion in the form of its proposed Eurasia Union, and it seems determined to force Ukraine to join. While publicly grumbling about supposed EU pressure on Ukraine, the reality is that Russia brutally extorted the country into abandoning its EU course. That is the source of this crisis; the facts speak for themselves.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# u8 Q% w, i9 t+ Z, c
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Even under the best of circumstances, the road back for Ukraine will be difficult. Russian pressure and destabilization, and the crisis to which they have led, have created new fissures in Ukraine’s society and have caused further damage to its fragile economy. And that damage could, one day, spill over into Russia. The Kremlin should have an interest in a stable and reforming neighbor that, like other countries, is also seeking a close relationship with the EU. & r/ `! u& v G! ~& w公仔箱論壇 , E' D3 C# s { UTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 o0 |9 O, V X% g& Q. b( B V Carl Bildt has been Sweden’s foreign minister since 2006, and was Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. # ^& \4 P; u { 2 E5 h, ^) Z0 x/ N i; K$ z6 I3 h 3 C3 A; s& y: ^# w+ B) Stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 9 Y4 i1 a8 J9 Z8 d公仔箱論壇Yevhen Bystrytsky: Can Ukraine Be Saved? 8 `! ?5 o- m* t4 a' j3 x 0 N" M8 e8 x, K5 ]5 `5 b6 p公仔箱論壇# H8 _$ ?/ z. P/ K, d
KYIV – Acrid black smoke hangs in the air and stings the eye in much of central Kyiv, where state repression is dampening hope of resolving Ukraine’s political crisis. With a truce between the government and the opposition shattered only hours after it came into effect, and with dozens of people reported killed in recent days, any hope for an end to the country’s deepening civil disorder appears to be fading fast. # u& ?3 p) _/ n* w# l' }) G& i& @& \! Jos.tvboxnow.comos.tvboxnow.com9 {5 H) ]6 W' p! X# g
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Yes, a tentative settlement has been reached, following mediation by European Union foreign ministers, with a promise of early elections. But such settlements have been proposed before, and no agreement is likely to gain broad acceptance unless it includes the immediate departure of President Viktor Yanukovich.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: e* C" O! |; \* ?1 K$ f
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In fact, Yanukovich’s government seems prepared to use any and all measures to remain in power. Taking a page from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, tax police are prosecuting civil-society organizations in the hope of cowing them into silence and irrelevance. Yet,despite such intimidation, Ukrainians from all walks of life have been protesting for three months in cities across the country.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& b5 ]. \' x7 M9 F. s1 h9 b
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At its heart, this is a struggle between Ukraine’s European-oriented West and its Russian-fixated East for the country’s geopolitical soul. Will Ukraine move closer to the European Union or instead join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union?tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 |) N( F3 ~9 O5 h+ S
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- R, R$ T& t% q; Ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvbDespite the mounting violence, Ukraine is not on the vergeof civil war – at least not yet. But make no mistake: the risk of the country –and its military – splintering is very real, as Yanukovich’s decision to sackVolodymyr Zamana, the head of the armed forces, attests. The conflict needs tobe stopped now.3 `- {- ? C7 k) F' {1 @/ t
To achieve that, Ukraine needs a transitional government ofexperts and a new constitution that returns the country to the system thatprevailed until a decade ago, with power divided between Parliament and thepresident. Moreover, a presidential election should be held within threemonths, with a new parliament voted in soon after. / f7 C" V3 H* n! N2 Z' ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvb - \5 a% k9 V5 T8 A9 y4 ITVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 : x& z) I7 C( s4 D( y+ u4 x# bos.tvboxnow.comBut Yanukovich has shown that he does not want a negotiated solution. Until the recent surge in violence, it seemed that dialogue might defuse tensions. An amnesty for detained protesters was offered, and protesters agreed to withdraw from government buildings. But when demonstrators fulfilled their promise and evacuated occupied buildings, Yanukovich resorted to force in an effort to end the protests altogether. . D# z! j( v9 J6 t9 |" gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 h x) W! l6 n2 M/ I
: \8 M3 z) c7 t$ sTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Indeed, the police began firing into crowds of demonstrators, and have reportedly killed at least 70 and injured hundreds more. Hospitals are overflowing, and many people are avoiding state clinics, because they are afraid of being detained – or worse. The activist Yuri Verbitsky, a mathematical physicist, was abducted by five men in late January from a Kyiv hospital, where he had gone to seek treatment after being injured by a stun grenade at a demonstration. Verbitsky’s battered body was found the next day in a forest outside the city. 6 C) h. O" E h4 Y# G0 M2 ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvbtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 U& S% }* o" N& A3 [
Any prospect for resolving the crisis ultimately depends on regaining citizens’ trust in their police and security forces, which are now viewed by many as an occupying force.To reestablish the public’s confidence, there can be no impunity for those who fired bullets or gave the orders to fire. Officials’ excessive use of force,and the government’s reliance on semi-criminal thugs (known as titushki)to attack protesters, must be thoroughly investigated. . y# o2 D+ G. E4 J R, r% @( `" {& Y! H' B6 n
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But, even as the ongoing violence makes such an investigation all the more urgent, Ukraine’s prosecutor and courts refuse to act. That is why it is crucial that a high-level international mission –comprising civil-society leaders, the Council of Europe, and the European Union– launch a comprehensive inquiry and pressure Ukraine’s government to cooperate. 2 r4 L) v7 D/ O7 A% P + N! i* e! H W" r3 Z) T* }7 Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ k* Q# L8 N9 j! y7 G6 v
The EU and the United States have introduced diplomatic sanctions since the latest round of murderous violence began. This should include a travel ban not only on all officials who ordered, oversaw, or implemented the crackdown, but also on Yanukovich’s political enablers: the oligarchs who are now sitting on the sidelines while spiriting large sums of money out of the country.7 t2 l f9 b5 y: o
/ C% \4 `6 ]8 _% g1 w) B公仔箱論壇 , s! q- Q6 U4 j5 k6 K2 c( N% G公仔箱論壇Sanctions should be lifted only when a credible investigation into the last three months of violence is permitted and a technocratic government is in place (at which point the EU and its member states should offer concrete economic assistance). Prime Minister Mykola Azarovresigned last month, ostensibly to make way for such a solution. But Yanukovich has refused to take the next step, or to commit to constitutional reforms,which largely explains the protesters’ growing frustration – and their determination to press ahead in the face of brutal repression.公仔箱論壇* ~! L' P; k5 c. Y& ]
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% Z+ K, e% R: g" \- n- D6 q0 a9 l: |
; S: O! S; Q3 h' n6 ]* o8 h8 xTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。There is a perception in the West that all of Ukraine’s political forces are weak, divided, and corrupt. And there are growing concerns,often fueled by sensationalist media coverage, that far-right forces are gaining the upper hand within the opposition camp. But, though such forces do exist, the vast majority of demonstrators on the Maidans across the country are ordinary people angry about abuse of power, state violence, official impunity,and corruption. * I+ \8 F! `" B5 Y# \ 1 \4 d# b3 L: d5 E4 j# DTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ( \8 g2 z/ E* }0 c5 \' Y: `TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。For the venal and vicious elites who have taken control of Ukraine, the real threat is these demonstrators’ perseverance, not the provocations of a radical fringe. Indeed, while I refuse to believe that Ukraine’s march to civil war is unstoppable, I also know that our citizens will never be silenced again.; ^5 v8 K! E x* k+ v7 Y
0 E4 c0 G) R+ D" _) C& z( ?$ Ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvbYevhen Bystrytsky is Executive Director of the International Renaissance Foundationtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! t" L) l A: S" X2 k
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 X( l! Y. l. n& E9 U 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-2-23 11:11 AM
烏國會罷免總統 5月大選 亞努科維奇堅拒辭職 前「美女總理」獲釋 6 u! }- l% a/ a( I- a) w( f6 w, x" K公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇$ q! ]& v8 P2 g
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【明報專訊】烏克蘭局勢昨急轉直下。激進反對派昨日向總統亞努科維奇攤牌，後者早上突然離開首都，至下午親亞氏國會議長辭職，反對派接任後，國會隨即通過法案，讓反對派前「美女總理」季莫申科重獲自由。亞氏傍晚接受電視訪問時表明不會辭職或出國，又狠批反對派發動政變，但國會晚上隨即通過罷免亞努科維奇，並提前在5月底大選。軍警則表明不會介入，顯示保安部隊不願再鎮壓民眾的立場。- s6 e& O. B4 S* C8 {% c% F
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總統昨突離首都 稱憂人身安全0 w7 Z8 }3 ~4 f! `7 ]
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P* v+ I* o8 Z/ }3 E4 jos.tvboxnow.com烏國朝野上周五（21日）才在歐盟和俄羅斯斡旋下達成和平協議，決定提早在今年底前大選，但僅1日後就出現逆轉。亞努科維奇昨晨突然離開首都基輔，前往東北部的第二大城市哈爾科夫（Kharkov），其助手指他並非辭職，只是與其當地政治盟友協商。基輔市內多幢政府建築隨即人去樓空，連警衛都撤出，部份示威者自發組織保安隊伍守衛，據報約300人未受阻攔進入了市郊的總統官邸。( _! a. ~7 R+ w" F$ a
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亞氏盟友、國會議長雷巴克昨日則以健康理由請辭，由反對派祖國黨的圖爾奇諾夫（Oleksandr Turchynov）當選接任。後者是季莫申科盟友，曾任其副手。國會隨後通過換上另一季氏盟友亞瓦科夫（ArsenAvakov）出任內政部長。* w3 v7 _; I; d% `
`$ x" P; v D! P" s) ^# w2 N& Ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb自從烏克蘭獨立，克里米亞韃靼人作為當地原主人，終於被准許從中亞流放地回家。雖然他們的人口不再是多數，但也佔了今天克里米亞人口的百分之十二，而且因為歷史悲壯，得到頗多國際輿論支持，不少西方人覺得欠他們一個公道。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. v" s; U! R: _3 Y7 o
N, u4 `# S( Bos.tvboxnow.com無論克里米亞俄人要獨立也好，回歸俄羅斯也好，當地韃靼人都會比烏克蘭人更反對，韃靼人領袖已稱利用目前亂局「分裂烏克蘭」是「叛國」行為。其實，克里米亞韃靼人歷史上和烏克蘭人也有不少恩怨，但兩害相權取其輕，還是弱勢的烏克蘭政府比強勢的俄羅斯民族主義容易應付。os.tvboxnow.com" h! e. p5 b1 c! y
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